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VanB
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Post by VanB »

Regardless of all of the above we tend to forget that technological advances occur at an exponential rate and we will likely see huge advances in EV technology over the next few years in the same way that we have many areas of science based practical applications. We already know that battery densities are increasing, their lives extending and I suspect the weight will come down. Charging technology and range are both likely to make massive advances too so I wouldn't be at all surprised if, in 5 years time, a 500 mile range were achievable on a 5 minute charge (about the time it takes to fill up and pay at a petrol station).

We tend to limit our thinking to what we know now and not what might be possible in the future. I am sure there are naysayers who will tell me all the reasons why none of this is possible but I'll take your criticism in 5 years when we know what is possible then
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johnd
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Post by johnd »

VanB wrote: Tue May 01, 2018 6:11 pm Regardless of all of the above we tend to forget that technological advances occur at an exponential rate and we will likely see huge advances in EV technology over the next few years in the same way that we have many areas of science based practical applications.
Totally agree
We already know that battery densities are increasing, their lives extending and I suspect the weight will come down.
Yes, again
Charging technology and range are both likely to make massive advances too so I wouldn't be at all surprised if, in 5 years time, a 500 mile range were achievable on a 5 minute charge (about the time it takes to fill up and pay at a petrol station).
Maybe we could note this for posterity as 'VanB's conjecture'. But I'm more than a little sceptical on the 5 minutes just because of the physics involved. I'd expect to see 500 miles range in 2-3 years because smaller/lighter/cheaper batteries will make it possible to fit eg a 150kWh battery pack. (Implicit in this: I don't expect the watts per mile to decrease too much. The I-Pace motor is already supposed to be 95% efficient and the braking regen is pretty good too. So the focus would need to be on making the car still more aerodynamic and reducing its rolling resistance, but there'll be a limit to what is possible in terms of styling and practicality.)

But to recharge a 150kWh battery completely in 5 mins would take a 3MW charger, which is 20-50x what is currently being installed - that's a huge difference. Even assuming that the charger network could be designed and built out at this power capacity, wouldn't it need some revolutionary new battery chemistry to absorb 3MW in 5 mins and still preserve a good long working life? That chemistry would surely be around in prototype form now given the time necessary to prove and commercialise these things and to build factories to make them on an industrial scale, but I've not seen reports of anything likely to provide that much of a step forwards within 5 years. One day maybe, but my guess would be the 2030-2040 time frame.
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VanB
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Post by VanB »

JohnD

This is the point "wouldn't it need some revolutionary new battery chemistry to absorb 3MW in 5 mins and still preserve a good long working life?"

Don't dismiss that it could happen or that a multi-MW charger could be available. The bounds of known physics are being pushed all the time and there will be a breakthrough in battery/charging technology way beyond anything that is currently reasonably acceptable within our current understanding.

Might be having a look at an article about the "technological singularity" by, I think, Ray Kurzweil - a very interesting read.
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Post by Paul »

^^^
Intersting....and a bit scary😳....(i-robot was on the telly a few weeks back........😮😉)
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johnd
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Post by johnd »

VanB wrote: Tue May 01, 2018 7:16 pm Don't dismiss that it could happen or that a multi-MW charger could be available. The bounds of known physics are being pushed all the time and there will be a breakthrough in battery/charging technology way beyond anything that is currently reasonably acceptable within our current understanding.
Yes, it's possible certainly, but is it likely? I'd probably give you 20-1 against (on a mass scale within 5 years). Pretty much any revolutionary technology takes 5-10 years to progress from proof of concept to mass production with maybe 95% of great ideas failing at some stage on that path.

Just because something is conceivable in principle doesn't mean that there aren't real physical barriers to it happening. Look at how Moore's Law has broken down now in the semiconductor world with Intel etc really struggling to make progress at the 10nm scale and smaller. Hard disk drives (the spinning rust type) are also struggling to get beyond about 10TB capacity (a few TB has been around the limit for several years now). Nuclear fusion as a power source has been just around the corner for the past 50 years! Designers have been trying to make a successful scramjet engine for hypersonic flight for many years. Etc.

But, sure, I could be wrong. There's probably much more money and effort going into battery research than ever before so maybe there will be some major breakthrough. But I still struggle to see it making through to proven mass production in less than 5-10 years.
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VanB
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Post by VanB »

Well obviously we will see.
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Post by Kasfranks99 »

I have been following this company for a number of years. See link below.
5 minutes charging has already been demonstrated and working now on EV ......
When we will get it is a different story.
Things are changing at such a fast pace it’s scary... even scary for people that do this for a living 😮

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Post by MikeM »

VanB wrote: Tue May 01, 2018 8:46 pm Well obviously we will see.
On a deliverable scale 🤔 Well some of the younger ones on this forum might. 😉
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Post by Deleted User 1874 »

Let's not get too carried away! The mainstream manufacturers have been slow to produce any EVs at all, never mind EVs with a 500 mile range and 5 min charge time, lol! Personally I think EV range will settle in the 3-400 mile bracket, with reduced weight as the main target. We might see the odd super long range battery option, but they will always be relatively heavy and most people will realise that they don't actually need them. Charge times on the road might well come down a little too (Tesla have set the benchmark at 120 kW), but the big change there will be the number of chargers available. Home charging isn't going to get any quicker, simply because it doesn't need to get quicker and most domestic supplies are not capable of supplying more than 100A total anyway. I'm talking about the next 10-20 years here, beyond that I think is Tomorrow's World talk.

I'll be very happy with a genuine 400 mile range, sub 30 min charge time and overnight home charging. Tesla are not far off that today, so I think it's quite a realistic target. What I don't want is any more weight in the car (current generation 100 kWh packs are already pushing the limit of what is acceptable) or significant battery degradation due to super-fast charging. I'd rather wait 15 mins for a charge than 5 mins if the latter hurts the pack - and it certainly would with the current technology. Tesla got it right with their 120 kW chargers to match the current battery tech, which are proving to have very low degradation in typical use.
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VanB
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Post by VanB »

Peteski

Battery tech is advancing at a huge rate and I don't believe that, within the foreseeable future, battery packs will come with a massive weight penalty and will be able to charge very quickly. Whilst it takes a little time for new technologies to hit the mainstream they are being developed constantly and a quick overview here https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets/new ... er-the-air gives a brief round up of the possibilities on the horizon. I reiterate what I said before that our thinking is constrained by what we know today and future will be here faster than an F1 pitstop!
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