SD residuals - What's the verdict?

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Ray G
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Post by Ray G »

On-Track wrote: Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:12 am A minor point of interest from the Approved Used Locator. There are four 68 plate SDs offered for sale (all mileage and price "on application"). I didn't think you could register a SD after 1 September 2018 because they do not meet WLTP requirements.

There are also seven 18 plate cars on offer with less than 100 miles on the clock. Mind you as the asking price is close to what was list price, I'm not over surprised they're sticking around.

Ray G's spreadsheet is interesting. From the time the GTS came out it outsold the S. Both the S and the base Macan sold at roughly the same rate so maybe the fact that more used Base Macans (as a percentage of vehicles for sale) are on offer implies a higher level of first owner dissatisfaction.

I've no idea of the long term residuals for SDs but the fact that mine (after three years and 30k miles) still looks good and goes well could mean that there might still be a demand for them.

Twelve months from now it will be interesting to study the rate of Macan sales in the UK and compare it with Ray's spreadsheet. That will give us an idea of the impact of no diesel option on overall sales.
I certainly intend to continue tracking this so will post an update when any meaningful data emerges...
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PJS
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Post by PJS »

Hmm, not been of the forum for ages, only popped on to flog some winter tyres (check out for sale/wanted ;-) - Some great data in here (lover the graphs) As someone who bought a new SD in March 2017 had I known it woud be discontinued I'd probably have bought another brand (20k miles a year not idea for a thirsty petrol). So now I'm adopting the head in sand approach and wont concern myself with it's value till we become tempted to change.
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Wing Commander
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Post by Wing Commander »

Good thinking, PJS. :)
Simon

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Ray G
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Post by Ray G »

PJS wrote: Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:20 pm Hmm, not been of the forum for ages, only popped on to flog some winter tyres (check out for sale/wanted ;-) - Some great data in here (lover the graphs) As someone who bought a new SD in March 2017 had I known it woud be discontinued I'd probably have bought another brand (20k miles a year not idea for a thirsty petrol). So now I'm adopting the head in sand approach and wont concern myself with it's value till we become tempted to change.
Interesting perspective. I really am in two minds about this:

On the one hand I too am thinking about the "ostrich" approach and wait for the new Macan in about three years times (including what the EV/hybrid options bring) and just accepting whatever I can for my SD at the time, or...

I saw a VG GTS 2018 with 4400 miles on the clock for £67k on Saturday that would fit the bill nicely now. Only trouble is they only offered me £45k for my SD (25% hit in 14 months for 5k miles). I countered with £15k delta and they are thinking about it :D

So am I.
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SAC1
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Post by SAC1 »

How much do you think the GTS will be worth in 14 months time?
Steve

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Ray G
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Post by Ray G »

I think I'd start by asking how much was it worth new 8 months ago (anyone any idea new GTS March '18 well specced cost?) and thus what is the depreciation to-date. % wise I think depreciation should be about the same for both going forward.

I always assume 10-15% loss as soon as it leaves the showroom and then roughly 10% per annum first three years on top. If it was (say) £75k new 8 months ago and about 20% depreciation for first 8 months (13% + 7%) i.e. it would be about £60 trade-in then mark-up for Porsche warranty, profit etc so about £65k on the forecourt.
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Ray G
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Post by Ray G »

SAC1 wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:03 pm How much do you think the GTS will be worth in 14 months time?
Specifically in answer to your question, and using the same £75k starting price, I'd calculate it as about 33% depreciation (13% + 10%+10%) so trade-in value about £50k. Out back on the forecourt for about £55-57k.
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SAC1
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Post by SAC1 »

Ray G wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:26 pm
SAC1 wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:03 pm How much do you think the GTS will be worth in 14 months time?
Specifically in answer to your question, and using the same £75k starting price, I'd calculate it as about 33% depreciation (13% + 10%+10%) so trade-in value about £50k. Out back on the forecourt for about £55-57k.
So your SD's residual value has held up quite well then compared to the (proposed) GTS - both approx 33% depreciation in the same time frame (and mileage). Biggest hit is always year 1 of course.

My take is to wait another 18 months and see how things are looking then. Even allowing for a 12 months factory order lead time, my SD will still be less than 4 years old, only had one minor service cost, possibly still on its OE tyres and 27,000 miles max. on the speedo. In that time I will have also enjoyed the better fuel economy versus petrol too. The GTS is lovely, but during a 2 hour test drive, using the motorway, city and cross-country roads, I did not feel that the difference was big enough to warrant changing.
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On-Track
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Post by On-Track »

SAC1 wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:23 pm
My take is to wait another 18 months and see how things are looking then. Even allowing for a 12 months factory order lead time, my SD will still be less than 4 years old, only had one minor service cost, possibly still on its OE tyres and 27,000 miles max. on the speedo. In that time I will have also enjoyed the better fuel economy versus petrol too. The GTS is lovely, but during a 2 hour test drive, using the motorway, city and cross-country roads, I did not feel that the difference was big enough to warrant changing.
You'll have to drive with an egg under your brake foot to get 27k out of a set of tyres. I thought I was doing well having got 21k out of the factory fitted set. Bear in mind that if you have less than 4mm of tread remaining when it comes to trade in time an OPC will just knock off the price of a new set of tyres from whatever he offers for your car.
Peter

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mark-yorkshire
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Post by mark-yorkshire »

On-Track wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:01 pm
SAC1 wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:23 pm
My take is to wait another 18 months and see how things are looking then. Even allowing for a 12 months factory order lead time, my SD will still be less than 4 years old, only had one minor service cost, possibly still on its OE tyres and 27,000 miles max. on the speedo. In that time I will have also enjoyed the better fuel economy versus petrol too. The GTS is lovely, but during a 2 hour test drive, using the motorway, city and cross-country roads, I did not feel that the difference was big enough to warrant changing.
You'll have to drive with an egg under your brake foot to get 27k out of a set of tyres. I thought I was doing well having got 21k out of the factory fitted set. Bear in mind that if you have less than 4mm of tread remaining when it comes to trade in time an OPC will just knock off the price of a new set of tyres from whatever he offers for your car.
When I traded in my last Macan on 20” all season Michelins I still had 5 mm all round after 23000 miles
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