Electric Macan

[Tall Phil]

It really is a b*gg*r's muddle at the mo.

Other than Tesla, from whom I have a Model 3 on order, most of the others are only "soon / rumoured" to be bringing out dedicated EVs.

The next 4/5 years is going to be exciting as to what is going to be available with ranges of over 300 miles. I am not sure current generation EV's, Tesla excluded here, will be worth much in 4/5 years due to only having first gen tech.

We just don't know what is around the corner, I think it really will pay to wait.

[andreas]

I
We just don't know what is around the corner, I think it really will pay to wait.

If we applied that logic to computers, none of us would be online here.

[Deleted User 1874]

I
We just don't know what is around the corner, I think it really will pay to wait.

If we applied that logic to computers, none of us would be online here.

Agreed and especially as most people change their cars every 3 or 4 years anyway. Actually here more like every 6 months!

But you would hope there would be much more choice on the EV market in 3 or 4 years time, so I can see why people would hang on if none of the current EV offerings fitted their needs. The only EV alternative to a Macan today is the iPace and even that is not really available until next year if you haven't already ordered one.

[MikeM]

News, with some 32 million cars registered on U.K. Roads and app 2 to 2.5 million per annum new cars identified doesn't equate to "most people" . This forum isn't a fair example of the Uk position when it comes to car ownership trends. Mostly frequented by those privileged (myself included) to have the benefit and cash to indulge more than the real world norms.

[Wing Commander]

I agree that we’re lucky to drive what we do.

However, changing cars every 3-4 years is still possible on your numbers quoted above, as many car changes involve selling/trading in a car and replacing it with a used car, not necessarily one of the 2m to 2.5m new cars sold.

[Deleted User 1874]

News, with some 32 million cars registered on U.K. Roads and app 2 to 2.5 million per annum new cars identified doesn't equate to "most people" . This forum isn't a fair example of the Uk position when it comes to car ownership trends. Mostly frequented by those privileged (myself included) to have the benefit and cash to indulge more than the real world norms.

I was talking about people on this forum, not everyone in general. People who buy Porsche Macans and expensive EVs tend to change their cars every 3 or 4 years IME and finance deals tend to reflect that cycle too. My dad used to keep his cars for decades, but that was a different mentality and he certainly couldn't afford a brand new Porsche!

[jesim1]

The next 4/5 years is going to be exciting as to what is going to be available with ranges of over 300 miles. I am not sure current generation EV's, Tesla excluded here, will be worth much in 4/5 years due to only having first gen tech.

We just don't know what is around the corner, I think it really will pay to wait.

I tend to agree with this. I've been looking and decided to keep my SD for another couple of years to see what comes out and how the charging network comes on. I get the analogy about computers being replaced, but they have steadied out now as opposed to the early days when at 3 years old they were so out of date as to be pretty worthless. We are currently going to get that with EVs as they are so new, what you see today will date very quickly, and in a few years it's likely battery technology will have doubled the range and halved the charge times, so a £65k Ipace may be up agains a £50k replacment with better performance and 50% more range - it will be a hard sell to shift the "old" Ipace for the £35k you would hope for, it will be more like £25k - but no one has a crystal ball, we can just look at what has happened previously with new, high priced technology.

James

[johnd]

...so a £65k Ipace may be up agains a £50k replacment with better performance and 50% more range - it will be a hard sell to shift the "old" Ipace for the £35k you would hope for,

Isn't this an argument for buying on PCP or PCH even if you do normally pay cash so that you know exactly where you are financially.

And FWIW I'm not sure that used prices will plummet as much as you're speculating on at least 3 counts. One is limited supply (for at least some models - like I-Pace - production is strictly limited and it will probably be a sellers' market on this model for some time to come whether we're talking new or used.)

Another is likely increased demand as more owners get enticed or cajoled across to running an EV (and a premium EV in the context of this forum). Demand for new examples will presumably also translate into demand for used ones.

And, lastly, I do wonder how quickly real-life range will increase from here? I'm sure it will go up incrementally but there's no obvious sign of major new advances in battery chemistry making it into production as yet. And on charging times, the I-Pace is rumoured to have just had an update to accept 150kW (375A I guess) charging. You do wonder how much higher than that it's necessary to go in practical terms (even assuming that there are enough 150+kW chargers around - the vast majority of CCS rapid chargers are currently 50kW). If you're going to stop anyway eg every 2-3 hours of motorway driving on a long trip, which may be reasonably sensible anyway for a coffee, brief rest from driving, loo break etc, then does it make too much difference whether the stop is 20 mins or 30-40mins?

[Deleted User 1874]

The next 4/5 years is going to be exciting as to what is going to be available with ranges of over 300 miles. I am not sure current generation EV's, Tesla excluded here, will be worth much in 4/5 years due to only having first gen tech.

We just don't know what is around the corner, I think it really will pay to wait.

I tend to agree with this. I've been looking and decided to keep my SD for another couple of years to see what comes out and how the charging network comes on. I get the analogy about computers being replaced, but they have steadied out now as opposed to the early days when at 3 years old they were so out of date as to be pretty worthless. We are currently going to get that with EVs as they are so new, what you see today will date very quickly, and in a few years it's likely battery technology will have doubled the range and halved the charge times, so a £65k Ipace may be up agains a £50k replacment with better performance and 50% more range - it will be a hard sell to shift the "old" Ipace for the £35k you would hope for, it will be more like £25k - but no one has a crystal ball, we can just look at what has happened previously with new, high priced technology.

James

I agree with John, while this line of thinking is quite rational, I don't think the technology (or at least the production of it) will move anything like as quickly as you think. In a few years time (as in the next 3 or 4 years) there will be more choice of EV for sure, but the battery technology will be the same as it is today. They certainly will not have doubled the range or halved the charge times or made them significantly cheaper for the same spec. What we will see is an improvement in the charging infrastructure and more EVs on the roads, but it will still be an ICE dominated market in that time scale. Might be a different story in 10 years time, but that's irrelevant for anyone looking to purchase an EV now or in the next couple of years.

There will always be incremental improvement as there is with any type of car. EV development should naturally be faster than ICE development, but the industry faces a fairly unique dilemma in selling mainly ICE cars, which in itself is likely to hold back the development of EVs. It's why the likes of Tesla have been able to sneak in and totally dominate the high end EV market for so long (6 years and still counting) and will probably continue to do so until there is a tipping point where the industry seriously has to focus on EVs as its main source of income. That point could still be the best part of a decade or more away. You only have to look at industry forecast EV volumes over the next few years to see how slowly they are actually moving. Tesla is the only manufacturer seriously ramping up EV production to significant levels. To put it in perspective, Jaguar are likely to produce less than 10,000 iPace next year, while Tesla will churn out close to 100,000 Model S/X and 250,000+ Model 3s. Nobody else is remotely close to those production figures in the EV market.

As for a £25k used iPace in 3 years time, I think that's highly unlikely given the supply restrictions and demand. You certainly can't buy a 3 year old Tesla today for anything like that sort of money and there are far more of those on the market! I would be more worried about the residuals on a current gen Macan to be honest! But anyway a PCP takes care of all that uncertainty, providing it's a good deal of course.

[Pivot]

IMHO EV is moving in the direction of consumer electronics... just look at this graph.


I will wait and buy an autonomous electric vehicle!

I can’t wait for the day when I have a petrol-powered Porsche in the garage for the weekend, and on daily basis I use AEV taking me to work and back. While I am in the office my AEV can do Uber duty to pay its keep.
I already have a motorcycle that I use some weekends (only) in summer. Why not a fine piece of petrol-powered automotive engineering that can be used every weekend?