Autonomous vehicles

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Pivot
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Re: Autonomous vehicles

Post by Pivot » Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:00 am

Has anybody on this forum read Mike Hearn (Google) paper on Autonomous Vehicles managed on Blockchain? It is probably 5 year old paper, but it recons that autonomous cars will be a utility and there will be no reason to own one, all running on blockchain, continuously optimised for efficiency. Somewhat futuristic view, but interesting perspective from tech giant perspective.
I cant find the link to the paper itself, but there is a 20min video of Mike presenting his work at a Turing conference.


Not the best presentation, paper was more insightful... anyway, skip the first 4 minutes on what he is not going to present, next 10 minutes outlines the idea.


Peteski
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Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:56 am

Re: Autonomous vehicles

Post by Peteski » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:20 am

Rab J wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:17 pm
Peteski wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 10:03 am
Rab J wrote:
Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:34 pm
Not long now and then all the EV verses ICE debate will be superfluous.
Yeah, maybe just another 30 years or so....
"Thirty years" A mere blink of the eye. I'll only be ninety and a menace on the roads so maybe autonomous will be everyone else's savour lol :shock:
Maybe Prince Philip will be back on the road ;)


Col Lamb
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Location: Lancashire

Re: Autonomous vehicles

Post by Col Lamb » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:23 pm

:D

My Macan Turbo is two years old and has an Autonomous driving mode!

She is called Wendy.

:D
Col
Macan Turbo
Air, 20” wheels, ACC, Pano, SurCam, 14w, LEDs, PS+, Int Light Pack, Heated seats and Steering, spare wheel
SC, Privacy glass, PDK gear, SD mirrors, Met Black, partial garnet.

Prior Macan SD similar spec to Turbo


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Pivot
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Re: Autonomous vehicles

Post by Pivot » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:17 pm

Col, is Wendy voice activated, or does she take over when her instrumentation senses the primary driver’s indisposition?


Col Lamb
Posts: 6983
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:38 pm
Location: Lancashire

Re: Autonomous vehicles

Post by Col Lamb » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:44 pm

Pivot wrote:
Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:17 pm
Col, is Wendy voice activated, or does she take over when her instrumentation senses the primary driver’s indisposition?
Intervention happens if her GnT is spilled.

:D
Col
Macan Turbo
Air, 20” wheels, ACC, Pano, SurCam, 14w, LEDs, PS+, Int Light Pack, Heated seats and Steering, spare wheel
SC, Privacy glass, PDK gear, SD mirrors, Met Black, partial garnet.

Prior Macan SD similar spec to Turbo


Peteski
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Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:56 am

Re: Autonomous vehicles

Post by Peteski » Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:50 pm

Pivot wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:00 am
Has anybody on this forum read Mike Hearn (Google) paper on Autonomous Vehicles managed on Blockchain? It is probably 5 year old paper, but it recons that autonomous cars will be a utility and there will be no reason to own one, all running on blockchain, continuously optimised for efficiency. Somewhat futuristic view, but interesting perspective from tech giant perspective.
I cant find the link to the paper itself, but there is a 20min video of Mike presenting his work at a Turing conference.


Not the best presentation, paper was more insightful... anyway, skip the first 4 minutes on what he is not going to present, next 10 minutes outlines the idea.
Well I gave that video a good go (managed to get 14 mins in) and I can't say it was very convincing. Anyone forecasting 50 years into the future is merely guessing anyway. Remember Space 1999 and Tomorrow's World?

The first assumption of truly autonomous cars becoming widespread on public roads is pretty dubious. We don't even have autonomous trains yet, except in very closed circuit environments like airport shuttles etc. even though the technology is already well capable. Same with aircraft, nobody is going to get on a fully autonomous drone without a human pilot, even if he just sits there doing nothing. Again the technology is available to do it, yet it isn't happening.

Compared to automating trains and planes, automating cars is far more of a challenge given the totally inconsistent and variable operating environment. In theory it can be done and companies like Google have shown that the tech is just about feasible, but going from prototype testing to widespread general use is not the small step a lot of people seem to think. It actually requires a fundamental change in human nature, which has so far held back automated transport wherever there is an element of danger involved. It's one thing transporting goods autonomously, like Amazon with their drone deliveries, but transporting humans is a very different challenge.

Hands up who would volunteer to jump into the back of a fully autonomous taxi for a ride across central London? 50 years is a long time, so who knows by then, but I'm very unlikely to see for myself unless I live into 3 figures.


GMAN75
Posts: 427
Joined: Wed May 09, 2018 11:21 am

Re: Autonomous vehicles

Post by GMAN75 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:03 pm

Peteski wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:50 pm
Pivot wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:00 am
Has anybody on this forum read Mike Hearn (Google) paper on Autonomous Vehicles managed on Blockchain? It is probably 5 year old paper, but it recons that autonomous cars will be a utility and there will be no reason to own one, all running on blockchain, continuously optimised for efficiency. Somewhat futuristic view, but interesting perspective from tech giant perspective.
I cant find the link to the paper itself, but there is a 20min video of Mike presenting his work at a Turing conference.


Not the best presentation, paper was more insightful... anyway, skip the first 4 minutes on what he is not going to present, next 10 minutes outlines the idea.
Well I gave that video a good go (managed to get 14 mins in) and I can't say it was very convincing. Anyone forecasting 50 years into the future is merely guessing anyway. Remember Space 1999 and Tomorrow's World?

The first assumption of truly autonomous cars becoming widespread on public roads is pretty dubious. We don't even have autonomous trains yet, except in very closed circuit environments like airport shuttles etc. even though the technology is already well capable. Same with aircraft, nobody is going to get on a fully autonomous drone without a human pilot, even if he just sits there doing nothing. Again the technology is available to do it, yet it isn't happening.

Compared to automating trains and planes, automating cars is far more of a challenge given the totally inconsistent and variable operating environment. In theory it can be done and companies like Google have shown that the tech is just about feasible, but going from prototype testing to widespread general use is not the small step a lot of people seem to think. It actually requires a fundamental change in human nature, which has so far held back automated transport wherever there is an element of danger involved. It's one thing transporting goods autonomously, like Amazon with their drone deliveries, but transporting humans is a very different challenge.

Hands up who would volunteer to jump into the back of a fully autonomous taxi for a ride across central London? 50 years is a long time, so who knows by then, but I'm very unlikely to see for myself unless I live into 3 figures.
I would also add that fully autonomous vehicles bring into light the huge issues which will face the insurance industry. Currently, it is relatively easy to establish fault. In a fully autonomous environment, where there is an accident and injury, who/what is at fault? Would a software issue be to blame? Would therefore the software owners bear liability? If someone was in the car but did not override the autonomous setting, would they bear liability? In my view, there are legal issues on top of technological factors that will render fully autonomous vehicles an extremely distant prospect.


Peteski
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Re: Autonomous vehicles

Post by Peteski » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:40 pm

GMAN75 wrote:
Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:03 pm
I would also add that fully autonomous vehicles bring into light the huge issues which will face the insurance industry. Currently, it is relatively easy to establish fault. In a fully autonomous environment, where there is an accident and injury, who/what is at fault? Would a software issue be to blame? Would therefore the software owners bear liability? If someone was in the car but did not override the autonomous setting, would they bear liability? In my view, there are legal issues on top of technological factors that will render fully autonomous vehicles an extremely distant prospect.
I agree, it's just not feasible to implement full autonomy. The nearest we are likely to get in the not too distant future are autonomous cars that still require a human driver to constantly monitor and over-ride as and when required. Tesla "Autopilot" is a reasonable step in that direction, where it can drive itself for the most part, but certainly requires a human to take over whenever it gets out of its depth. It's basically the cost of that human monitoring that prevents all the stuff in that video from becoming a reality.

What we can look forward to is greatly reduced fatigue when driving on long monotonous motorway trips or crawling in traffic jams and the latest wave of semi-autonomous driver aids already achieve that aim pretty effectively. The Tesla system in particular is now very robust at motorway driving and the auto steering is by far the best I've seen to date and has no problem tracking a lane smoothly at up to 90 mph, even with significant bends. Where it starts to fall down quite badly is on country roads with hairpins etc, but that's where you want to be driving manually anyway. On fast single carriage A-roads like the A5 it does pretty well too with close supervision. But it's a million miles away from being fully autonomous without a driver in sight!


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Pivot
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Re: Autonomous vehicles

Post by Pivot » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:57 pm

Peteski wrote: ...
Remember Space 1999 and Tomorrow's World?
...
YES! It was fantastic

But personally I preferred “In the Year 2000” futuristic segments on Conan O’Brien show



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Pivot
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Re: Autonomous vehicles

Post by Pivot » Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:01 pm

An interesting summary on Robo Cars:
https://www.wired.com/story/guide-self-driving-cars/


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