EV future and Porsche

[Paul1970]

[/quote]

Peteski - Analysts aside, Tesla is a ponzi scheme. I have said it before and will say so again. Anyone with a deposit down on a model 3 for delivery in 2525 should ask for their money back now. Musk might be a visionary but that won't save the company from running out of money. At this stage Model 3 depositors look vulnerable....[/quote]

Agreed. Tesla may be the pioneer but all good ideas are copied and often bettered.

Once BMW, Merc, Audi, Porsche, Ferrari, Aston Martin etc get up to speed then as a purchaser (particularly at the higher end of the market) I’m going to go for the tried and trusted brand with dealer support over the one man band operating out of a few shopping centres.

I just cannot see long term survival and, if punters run scared and Tesla does go under, there will be a lot of £80k cars go worthless overnight. As a potential purchaser then that would make me very nervous.

Quite simply if Musk doesn’t resolve production issues and start winning back the confidence of the media, investors and potential owners, then I don’t see how Tesla will make it.



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[Nosmo]

I do wonder if Tesla will be the next DeLorean? What would a Tesla would look like with a flux capacitor fitted

Like a Ponzi scheme on steriods

[Nosmo]

+1. And now Musk has announced Model Y, Tesla's 2nd SUV based on the Model 3 platform. So don't hold your breath on a delivery date....

+2 ...and what better way to address a potential funding crisis than to start taking a new line in deposits from the fanbase.

That's the point. Musk might be phenominally wealthy but I can't for a second imagine him pumping his last penny into this venture. At some stage the "rubber needs to hit the road" pardon the pun. If anyone on the forum has money down, or knows of someone who has a deposit with Tesla, have a good think and ask yourself the question if a Tesla is worth losing £££ other than through depreciation.

[Deleted User 1874]

Peteski - Analysts aside, Tesla is a ponzi scheme. I have said it before and will say so again. Anyone with a deposit down on a model 3 for delivery in 2525 should ask for their money back now. Musk might be a visionary but that won't save the company from running out of money. At this stage Model 3 depositors look vulnerable....

Now you've said it again it must be true, lol. Sorry I disagree. Tesla is the only company on the planet totally committed to EVs and it shows! Porsche and all the other mainstream manufacturers are still way behind. They don't even have any comparable products today, while the Model S has been wafting around since 2012. It will be 2022 at the earliest before there is any chance of a proper EV Macan and even that isn't certain. The mainstream industry is still largely in denial and clutching at PHEVs as a viable alternative.

Tesla's mission statement (from 2013):
"Our goal when we created Tesla a decade ago was the same as it is today: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."

That doesn't sound like a ponzi scheme to me. Sure they take long term deposits, but starting up an automotive company would be hard to do any other way. The irony is that most people will be driving their Model 3 before most of the mainstream get their first premium EV products to market. Model 3s are already hitting US roads while the mainstream giants continue to talk about EV concepts and PHEVS.

My view is that the mainstream industry is thinking of EV as a niche market alongside their legacy products and they are struggling to see beyond that business model. That's why Tesla have been able to dominate the high end EV market since 2012. Only now are the "giants" starting to revise their plans - I read that the Porsche 911 product chief was now considering a full EV 911, which he said would have been unthinkable only 2 years ago. Talk about heads buried in sand.

The only question with Tesla, is whether or not they want to be in this game long term as an independent manufacturer or are happy to sell out to the bigger players (maybe not even an automotive manufacturer, could be the likes of Apple or MS) at some point or even just consider their mission accomplished. As of now it looks like they are determined to get the M3 lines up and running, including another new Gigafactory in China.

Anyway, here's an interesting counter article to the analysts down-playing Tesla stock (in defending their own short positions)

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/201 ... -be-right/

[Deleted User 1874]

+1. And now Musk has announced Model Y, Tesla's 2nd SUV based on the Model 3 platform. So don't hold your breath on a delivery date....

+2 ...and what better way to address a potential funding crisis than to start taking a new line in deposits from the fanbase.

That's the point. Musk might be phenominally wealthy but I can't for a second imagine him pumping his last penny into this venture. At some stage the "rubber needs to hit the road" pardon the pun. If anyone on the forum has money down, or knows of someone who has a deposit with Tesla, have a good think and ask yourself the question if a Tesla is worth losing £££ other than through depreciation.

It's great that you are looking out for those poor folk who ordered a Model 3, but the deposit is only £1K and you can get a full refund or move it to a Model S/X at any time (as quite a few people have done to avoid the long wait). And no, before anyone asks I don't have a deposit down on a Model 3. My wife does want one though! We'll just have to wait probably 2 years or so - which is probably less time than it would take to get into any other comparable EV. That's why Tesla are taking so many deposits, because nobody else is making a similar car to attract those half million potential customers. It's all concept cars and 2022 timescales pretty much everywhere else. Only Jaguar and maybe Audi will be in the market ahead of that and in what volume?

[Col Lamb]

Must made millions out of software then founded Paypal.

So whilst he may have billions it is not just his money that is financing all the companies he is involved with.

He has been put on his pedalstal by rampant investors who are seeking massive gains on their investment.

The diversity of his activities might be his saviour or his downfall, who knows?

Meanwhile Warren Buffet is quietly buying up Microsoft stock, where next for this guy and his cohorts?

There has been quite a few comments on the length of time it takes to get a new model designed, tested and into production, well if you take a look at the likes of Boeing and 2 1/2 years from drawing board to actual flying, if a company can do that for an aircraft a car manufacturer can certainly achieve a far faster process than it currently does.

[Mistertoad]

Warren Buffet has just bought 75 million Apple shares, adding to the 165 Million he bought at the end of 2017.

[Deleted User 1874]

Once BMW, Merc, Audi, Porsche, Ferrari, Aston Martin etc get up to speed then as a purchaser (particularly at the higher end of the market) I’m going to go for the tried and trusted brand with dealer support over the one man band operating out of a few shopping centres.

Amazing foresight. By getting up to speed, I presume you mean in producing some high end EVs at all. In which case the tried and trusted brand is actually Tesla, having now produced over 300,000 cars without a single competitor vehicle on the market.

You keep on waiting for your "branded" EV made by a company producing their first ever serious EV (sometime soon), while still focusing their day-business on legacy ICE cars. Good luck with dealer support too on a niche product that most of their franchised dealers won't even be qualified to service. Look at how eGolf owners get treated when they have a problem. Many VW dealers won't even touch them and their roadside support has virtually zero knowledge of these cars.

This is not to say that Tesla doesn't have issues of its own, but they are at least fully focused on EVs as their core product. And of course they are the only game in town right now. Everything else is just a concept or pre-order.

[Col Lamb]

Teslas dominance will not last, that is certain.

Teslas Gigafactory will have a production capacity of 500,000 per year.

In the UK alone
Nissan 500,000
Honda 200,000
Mini 200,000
Vauxhall 180,000
JLR 700,000

So by the time these plants alone are in production of EVs there will be much more competition for Tesla to deal with.

The Tesla S and X will always be niche products due simply to their very high costs. The Model 3 will be the make or break model but by the time that becomes readily available so will a large number of EVs by the cream of the marques.

5 years time and the market will be totally transformed.

[Deleted User 1874]

Teslas dominance will not last, that is certain.

Teslas Gigafactory will have a production capacity of 500,000 per year.

In the UK alone
Nissan 500,000
Honda 200,000
Mini 200,000
Vauxhall 180,000
JLR 700,000

So by the time these plants alone are in production of EVs there will be much more competition for Tesla to deal with.

The Tesla S and X will always be niche products due simply to their very high costs. The Model 3 will be the make or break model but by the time that becomes readily available so will a large number of EVs by the cream of the marques.

5 years time and the market will be totally transformed.

I hope you are right about the market being transformed in 5 years time, but I really don't see the mainstream industry making that change so quickly. Most are talking about low volume EVs alongside their ICE based PHEVs in that timescale. No way are those plants going to change over to EV production any time soon. Jaguar for example have outsourced their iPace production, which again will be low volume.

Tesla S and X are not really niche market in the volumes they sell against the likes of Mercedes S class etc. They now outsell most of their direct ICE rivals in many key markets, including Europe and they are selling more and more cars every year:-

https://global.handelsblatt.com/compani ... ope-889862

What is certain is that Tesla cannot supply the whole world's EV demand for the long term, but it could well remain one of the leading players as it already is today. I would also predict that at least one or more of the traditional manufacturers could fail during the change to EV if they don't plan wisely. It's not a guaranteed business just because you are an established ICE manufacturer.