Tesla Model 3 sales

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Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

Dandock wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:47 pm
Peteski wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:43 pm
Dandock wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:23 pm

So, for the S is the subscription included?
Yes and there are no data charges for the sim either.
Wonders if that will also apply to base model 3?
I don't know. I would guess data will be free because of the OTA software updates, not sure about the premium Spotify - maybe bundled with the premium sound system? I haven't looked into that sort of detail yet.

Dandock
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Post by Dandock »

Peteski wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:59 pm
Col Lamb wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:26 pm
Dandock wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:47 pm

Wonders if that will also apply to base model 3?
I would presume very little, it is already on the Tesla site that Superchargers are not free to use
It's not the big deal that some people think. I get free supercharging, but use it once in a blue moon since 99% of my charging is at home. It is nice to have free charging on longer trips, but not essential. Compared to the cost of petrol/diesel any charges will be minimal.
But as ICE sales drop it’s going to leave a massive hole in HMs revenue. That surely cannot continue. And for reasons of equality I imagine charging prices will rise accordingly.
VG Petrol S http://www.porsche-code.com/PHIVCQU7           And a GT3 RS... by Lego! Not crash-tested! 😀
johnd
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Post by johnd »

Dandock wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 7:07 pm But as ICE sales drop it’s going to leave a massive hole in HMs revenue. That surely cannot continue. And for reasons of equality I imagine charging prices will rise accordingly.
I think the most likely change will be to road pricing. See eg:

https://www.ft.com/content/043869d0-ed1 ... 03682345c8

While you might be able to levy some tax on fast/super chargers of various sorts, it likely wouldn't be practicable to do the same to home (or probably work) charging.
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Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

Dandock wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 7:07 pm
Peteski wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:59 pm
Col Lamb wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:26 pm

I would presume very little, it is already on the Tesla site that Superchargers are not free to use
It's not the big deal that some people think. I get free supercharging, but use it once in a blue moon since 99% of my charging is at home. It is nice to have free charging on longer trips, but not essential. Compared to the cost of petrol/diesel any charges will be minimal.
But as ICE sales drop it’s going to leave a massive hole in HMs revenue. That surely cannot continue. And for reasons of equality I imagine charging prices will rise accordingly.
I don't think home charging is going to get any more expensive than any other home electricity usage. Charging prices on the road may well soar, but that doesn't matter so much. Apart from the free Tesla superchargers, most roadside chargers are already considerably more expensive than domestic electricity tariffs.
Col Lamb
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Post by Col Lamb »

Dandock wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 7:07 pm
Peteski wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:59 pm
Col Lamb wrote: Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:26 pm

I would presume very little, it is already on the Tesla site that Superchargers are not free to use
It's not the big deal that some people think. I get free supercharging, but use it once in a blue moon since 99% of my charging is at home. It is nice to have free charging on longer trips, but not essential. Compared to the cost of petrol/diesel any charges will be minimal.
But as ICE sales drop it’s going to leave a massive hole in HMs revenue. That surely cannot continue. And for reasons of equality I imagine charging prices will rise accordingly.
The Governments are only pushing EV only to reduce local air pollution especially in Towns and Cities

Petrol and Diesel fuel will reduce in usage over the next 5 to 20 years, the fuel cost will rise substantially as time passes.

Fuel Duty income to Bloodsuckers Inc that is the Government will drastically fall.

Government income will have to be maintained.

Only way to do that is to screw us in other ways.

To me the most obvious is via road charging.
Col
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Air, 20” wheels, ACC, Pano, SurCam, 14w, LEDs, PS+, Int Light Pack, Heated seats and Steering, spare wheel, SC, Privacy glass, PDK gear, SD mirrors, Met Black, rear airbags
Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

Just watched this excellent owner review of the Model 3. Puts many of the tired old motoring hacks to shame and probably reflects the way the younger generation view cars. It's not the American Tesla fanboy view you might expect at the start, the guy is pretty smart and critical. It's the best demo of the touchscreen interface I've seen so far too. I think the car looks great.

Frenchy
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Post by Frenchy »

I am very tempted by an EV, waiting for the mission E cross tourismo

How much to change the batteries ?
The model 3 will be better next year thanks to SW update, sure but what will be the residual for a 6/7 yrs old Tesla ?
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Col Lamb
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Post by Col Lamb »

Frenchy wrote: Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:23 pm I am very tempted by an EV, waiting for the mission E cross tourismo

How much to change the batteries ?
The model 3 will be better next year thanks to SW update, sure but what will be the residual for a 6/7 yrs old Tesla ?
I did read about a year ago that a replacement battery pack was c$12,000 but it was also stated to be a moot point as the battery pack is expected to last 9 - 12 years.

That said as more and more EVs come on to the market battery production will ramp up and economies of scale come into play, no doubt also compatible packs will come into play. Its not as though the Tesla has unique cells, the individual cells are supposedly AA sized and originally of Panasonic design.

Residual value is an unknown, but no doubt the cost of replacement battery pack will play factor in depressing the trade in and future forecourt price.

Personally whilst running costs may well be substantively lower than ICE power, once battery replacement is factored in it may well be similar.

No doubt battery insurance or hire options will come into play.

Swapping over a battery pack on a Tesla S can be undertaken in less time than it takes to fill up an ICE with fuel, at least that is what the promo video showed.
Col
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Air, 20” wheels, ACC, Pano, SurCam, 14w, LEDs, PS+, Int Light Pack, Heated seats and Steering, spare wheel, SC, Privacy glass, PDK gear, SD mirrors, Met Black, rear airbags
johnd
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Post by johnd »

Col Lamb wrote: Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:17 am Residual value is an unknown, but no doubt the cost of replacement battery pack will play factor in depressing the trade in and future forecourt price.
But don't forget that the original battery pack may itself have some significant value. The battery pack is unlikely to fail completely (or even if it does there'll probably be one battery module out of many causing the problem that a specialist repairer could fix), but will eventually decline to below some specified % (eg 70%) of its original capacity. There is expected then to be a market for secondary use of these ageing but still perfectly usable battery packs for different types of energy storage either at home- or grid-scale where the higher-stress rapid charge/discharge cycles that an EV battery needs are much less of a priority. See eg:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/indu ... ge-systems

All that said, it's difficult to know what the residual value is likely to be in practice. We're assured that EV battery life should be excellent, especially if a little care is taken to avoid over-frequent rapid charging (which will be easy to do and indeed potentially the norm for anyone charging at home or the office). So, time will tell of course, but battery life at 80-90% of original capacity might be good for 10-12 years, by which time a subsequent owner of a £5-10K car with 100K+ on the clock will probably decide that 70-80% capacity is perfectly acceptable for the next 3-5 years. And by that time battery technology may well have moved on further and costs further reduced so maybe the demand won't be there to reuse the battery.

Overall, it's not easy to foresee quite how EV technology and life expectancy will evolve by eg 2030 - new ways of looking at things are likely to be needed.
Last edited by johnd on Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

Frenchy wrote: Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:23 pm I am very tempted by an EV, waiting for the mission E cross tourismo

How much to change the batteries ?
The model 3 will be better next year thanks to SW update, sure but what will be the residual for a 6/7 yrs old Tesla ?
Well you can look at residuals for current 5 and 6 year old Teslas, they are actually very strong for various reasons. Guaranteed residuals on PCP finance are very high too (around 50% over 4 years).

Batteries would be very expensive to change, but they are proving reliable for high mileages, early Model S/X batteries typically only losing around 10% capacity over 150K miles and the chemistry is getting better all the time, so newer cars will probably have even less degradation. Other manufacturers like Nissan are not faring quite so well in that regard, with widely reported battery degradation issues.
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