Elon Musk in hot water again.

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Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

muxty wrote: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:36 pm Just by looking at the planned production volumes for Audi E-tron, i-Pace, Taycan etc I think that old auto is in for a rude awakening in a few years. And speaking of BMW. They actually loosing ground a lot. They're even further behind and if watching the latest press releases of BMW i4 (2021) etc it's borderline hilarious.
I too looked at those various planned production volumes and surmised that they are not really all that serious about taking on the EV market just yet. Seems like more of a PR exercise while they quietly continue selling ICE based products that they know and have already invested heavily in. Tesla simply don't have any of that baggage to carry around and neither do the Chinese start-ups, who I expect will become the real competition for Tesla. I would not be surprised to see at least one of the major legacy car makers going bust in the next decade, simply by making the wrong call on the transition from ICE to EV. It's not a situation they have ever had to face before.

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Semerka
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Post by Semerka »

All this EV talk is sending me to sleep, must go and recharge my batteries!
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Post by Dandock »

As mentioned one Tesla advantage has been their ability to focus on a single gentle. Old autos admittedly have had their pants down but at the same time have had to maintain and develop their core business both in terms of new product and new legislation whilst creating, as it were, new start-ups and at the same time trying to factor in the transition and an infrastructure across their entire geo-market, and keep still the shareholding establishment happy.
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GMAN75
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Post by GMAN75 »

muxty wrote: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:36 pm
Nosmo wrote: Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:05 pm
GMAN75 wrote: Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:16 pm


Peteski et al, here are some figures for you all. These aren't made up:

Tesla Market Cap... $50.29bn
BMW Market Cap...$51 bn

Tesla Revenues....$11.7bn
BMW Revenues....€98.67bn

Tesla 2017 loss...c.$2bn
BMW 2017 profit...€8.7bn

Tesla net equity...$4.2bn
BMW net equity...€54bn

Do you understand why there is so much interest in the shorting of Tesla?? The numbers don't add up. They simply don't work for financial markets or investors. It is, literally, blue sky dot com bubble crash area. These are hard figures. It doesn't matter what you've baked into future earnings, Tesla would have to dominate the entire world's production of EVs to match its valuation. Clearly, it won't. Hence, the shorters.
There is no emoticon for loud applause. If there was one you'd get it from me GMAN75. Balance sheets don't lie. If they do - you'll get found out - (again).

The argument is about survival, not product brilliance and market position today.
I couldn't agree less.

Thing is that "old rules does not apply" and it should not be compared with some sort of dot com bubble. Having grown a company that in one year accelerate sales from 25k cars Q2 2017 to 85k cars Q2 2018 they're doing a lot of things right. And while Tesla move the goal post in a pace that is quite impressive, the nay sayers find new negative aspects to critic Tesla about. A few months ago the analysts laughed at the low productions volumes of Model 3 and Internet was full of it. Now when they have showed that they can produce 5k cars/week the negative aspects move over to other topics. When Tesla start to be profitable in a quarter or two the critics will find new things. And so it moves on...

The main asset and competitive advantage that Tesla has is that they're a software company and they understand EV drivetrain/battery tech better than the competition. They also focus 100% on EV which is a huge benefit that is not often talked about. Also their direct to customer sales model is something that most of the old auto companies wish they had. Not to start to talk about the Autopilot stack. Tesla have hundreds of thousands cars that train their Neural Networks/machine learning (in shadow mode). In published Matrix some of analysts place Waymo and most other companies ahead of Tesla, but in a few years it can look very very different. Just because Tesla has a complete different AI approach than the rest.

Also don't forget that Tesla Model S has been on sale since 2013 and what "old auto" now launches is not better 5-6 years later if we talk about the EV drivetrain, batteries and efficiency. I mean, the Germans brag about their wind tunnels and aerodynamics, but still they can't with their 100 years of experience create a product that is close to being as aerodynamic as either Model S and X (in their respective classes). That says something.

Now the old companies start to announce (and to some extent) roll out their expensive first try on long range EVs at 80-100k. When they do that Tesla is one step ahead and roll out the less expensive Model 3 with long range and all the benefits that the X/S has at a lower price point.

Just by looking at the planned production volumes for Audi E-tron, i-Pace, Taycan etc I think that old auto is in for a rude awakening in a few years. And speaking of BMW. They actually loosing ground a lot. They're even further behind and if watching the latest press releases of BMW i4 (2021) etc it's borderline hilarious.
We agree to disagree then muxty.

It is precisely what was pointed out above, this is a game of survival. Tesla, as it stands today, just won't survive. It will need a complete restructuring if it is to go forward. You have to wonder whether it would be possible. There is absolutely no chance that it will be able to refinance its current debt obligations.

However much you love the company, basic finance wins in the end. Always has and always will.
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Post by Col Lamb »

Musk’s latest will surely not help.
.
.
Elon Musk has mocked a US financial regulator just days after reaching an agreement with it over fraud charges.

The Tesla boss tweeted the "Shortseller Enrichment Commission", as he dubbed the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), was doing "incredible work".
.
:roll:
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Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

GMAN75 wrote: Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:17 pm
muxty wrote: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:36 pm
Nosmo wrote: Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:05 pm

There is no emoticon for loud applause. If there was one you'd get it from me GMAN75. Balance sheets don't lie. If they do - you'll get found out - (again).

The argument is about survival, not product brilliance and market position today.
I couldn't agree less.

Thing is that "old rules does not apply" and it should not be compared with some sort of dot com bubble. Having grown a company that in one year accelerate sales from 25k cars Q2 2017 to 85k cars Q2 2018 they're doing a lot of things right. And while Tesla move the goal post in a pace that is quite impressive, the nay sayers find new negative aspects to critic Tesla about. A few months ago the analysts laughed at the low productions volumes of Model 3 and Internet was full of it. Now when they have showed that they can produce 5k cars/week the negative aspects move over to other topics. When Tesla start to be profitable in a quarter or two the critics will find new things. And so it moves on...

The main asset and competitive advantage that Tesla has is that they're a software company and they understand EV drivetrain/battery tech better than the competition. They also focus 100% on EV which is a huge benefit that is not often talked about. Also their direct to customer sales model is something that most of the old auto companies wish they had. Not to start to talk about the Autopilot stack. Tesla have hundreds of thousands cars that train their Neural Networks/machine learning (in shadow mode). In published Matrix some of analysts place Waymo and most other companies ahead of Tesla, but in a few years it can look very very different. Just because Tesla has a complete different AI approach than the rest.

Also don't forget that Tesla Model S has been on sale since 2013 and what "old auto" now launches is not better 5-6 years later if we talk about the EV drivetrain, batteries and efficiency. I mean, the Germans brag about their wind tunnels and aerodynamics, but still they can't with their 100 years of experience create a product that is close to being as aerodynamic as either Model S and X (in their respective classes). That says something.

Now the old companies start to announce (and to some extent) roll out their expensive first try on long range EVs at 80-100k. When they do that Tesla is one step ahead and roll out the less expensive Model 3 with long range and all the benefits that the X/S has at a lower price point.

Just by looking at the planned production volumes for Audi E-tron, i-Pace, Taycan etc I think that old auto is in for a rude awakening in a few years. And speaking of BMW. They actually loosing ground a lot. They're even further behind and if watching the latest press releases of BMW i4 (2021) etc it's borderline hilarious.
We agree to disagree then muxty.

It is precisely what was pointed out above, this is a game of survival. Tesla, as it stands today, just won't survive. It will need a complete restructuring if it is to go forward. You have to wonder whether it would be possible. There is absolutely no chance that it will be able to refinance its current debt obligations.

However much you love the company, basic finance wins in the end. Always has and always will.
You are not the first to predict Tesla's impending demise as if it's inevitable. Various industry "experts" have been saying this sort of thing since around 2012 and yet here they are churning out double the cars they were this time last year and probably about to double up again next year.
GMAN75
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Post by GMAN75 »

Peteski, I am not wishing the death of Tesla. Their product is one which deserves evolution. BUT...you must also understand where I come from and indeed what I do for a living. Tesla's numbers today don't make sense for me. It is even doubtful that what they produce they even sell! There are reports of Teslas being stored all around the US, Teslas being returned for fixes and never seen again, indeterminate delays for people who have been promised vehicles, the list goes on there. If you add the financials, there's a story which just doesn't make sense. Saying people predicted its fall in 2012 is not the same as expressing concerns for the company today. It's evolved, it's grown, but at what cost??! Like I said, for it to continue, imho, there will be a need for a substantial reorganisation.

Further, if I am looking at a 100k+ premium EV, I want it to be of a quality that is simply untouchable. That again is where Tesla fails. Model X in particular frankly! I've seen and tested one with horrible gaps and finish. You can rail all you want but they are my views and I need to see them rectify or move to rectify all of the above before I get close to comfort. In all sincerity, I hope they do!
Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

GMAN75 wrote: Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:35 pm Peteski, I am not wishing the death of Tesla. Their product is one which deserves evolution. BUT...you must also understand where I come from and indeed what I do for a living. Tesla's numbers today don't make sense for me. It is even doubtful that what they produce they even sell! There are reports of Teslas being stored all around the US, Teslas being returned for fixes and never seen again, indeterminate delays for people who have been promised vehicles, the list goes on there. If you add the financials, there's a story which just doesn't make sense. Saying people predicted its fall in 2012 is not the same as expressing concerns for the company today. It's evolved, it's grown, but at what cost??! Like I said, for it to continue, imho, there will be a need for a substantial reorganisation.

Further, if I am looking at a 100k+ premium EV, I want it to be of a quality that is simply untouchable. That again is where Tesla fails. Model X in particular frankly! I've seen and tested one with horrible gaps and finish. You can rail all you want but they are my views and I need to see them rectify or move to rectify all of the above before I get close to comfort. In all sincerity, I hope they do!
I have no idea what you do for a living, but I'm guessing something financial? With all due respect I don't have much faith in the whole financial industry based on recent historical performance. But I do understand your concerns and I'm sure they are very real.

I'm a professional engineer myself so I'm pretty picky when it comes to engineering design quality and function. You could say it's my field of expertise. The first Tesla Model X I saw in a showroom just over a year ago was indeed pretty shoddy in terms of panel gaps and finish, but they have improved massively since then and the underlying design is pretty solid, if a little over-complicated with the rear doors. Despite a very positive test drive, I didn't commit to buying one until I saw better built examples later in the year.

For sure they are still not the best finished cars in the class, but there's much more to a car than perfect panel gaps and finish. Porsche are much better in that respect, but they simply don't have the drivetrain or tech to compete in that market yet. For now Tesla still have a unique product that appeals to buyers like me who perhaps value the function more than the ultimate finish.

When Porsche eventually release a full EV SUV with comparable performance and interior tech and there is a reliable functioning high speed public charging network then I'll probably buy one. But that still seems like 3+ years away, which is why I decided to take a risk on Tesla this time around. Coming up to 12k miles it's been great, easily the best and most convenient family car we've had and the performance is just stunning. Really has exceeded our expectations and nailed the coffin well and truly shut on ever considering any future ICE equivalents.

I hope Tesla do survive too and continue pushing the boundaries. I also hope there is some serious competition to give some choice in the EV market. But what I'm seeing so far on the horizon isn't tempting me away. This expectation that many have about mainstream manufacturers blowing Tesla away with their new EVs is looking increasingly unlikely as time ticks by. Even the popular car mags have been critical recently of both the e-tron and Merc EV specs looking a bit benign. The iPace is not pushing any EV boundaries forward either and it is highly debatable whether or not it's better than a 2012 Tesla Model S, which is due for a major refresh in the next year or two.
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Post by VanB »

Having just driven a model S for the first time for 200 miles on a variety of roads I am very impressed with the drivetrain and handling. The finish leaves a lot to be desired in a car at this price point but it is very difficult to criticise the driving experience.

I have concerns about the fundamentals of the company financials and its future in its current guise but the tech is attractive enough for it to be acquired in any case


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muxty

Post by muxty »

GMAN75 wrote: Sat Oct 06, 2018 3:35 pm Peteski, I am not wishing the death of Tesla. Their product is one which deserves evolution. BUT...you must also understand where I come from and indeed what I do for a living. Tesla's numbers today don't make sense for me. It is even doubtful that what they produce they even sell! There are reports of Teslas being stored all around the US, Teslas being returned for fixes and never seen again, indeterminate delays for people who have been promised vehicles, the list goes on there. If you add the financials, there's a story which just doesn't make sense. Saying people predicted its fall in 2012 is not the same as expressing concerns for the company today. It's evolved, it's grown, but at what cost??! Like I said, for it to continue, imho, there will be a need for a substantial reorganisation.

Further, if I am looking at a 100k+ premium EV, I want it to be of a quality that is simply untouchable. That again is where Tesla fails. Model X in particular frankly! I've seen and tested one with horrible gaps and finish. You can rail all you want but they are my views and I need to see them rectify or move to rectify all of the above before I get close to comfort. In all sincerity, I hope they do!
You sound just like Jim Chanos and Mark B. Spiegel. I do hope that you haven't shorted Tesla and loose money like these guys :D
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