Elon Musk in hot water again.

[GMAN75]

Do you understand why there is so much interest in the shorting of Tesla?? The numbers don't add up. They simply don't work for financial markets or investors. It is, literally, blue sky dot com bubble crash area. These are hard figures. It doesn't matter what you've baked into future earnings, Tesla would have to dominate the entire world's production of EVs to match its valuation. Clearly, it won't. Hence, the shorters.

Yes I fully understand why they are doing it, but some of them are playing very dirty too - actively funding and spreading misinformation. Tesla depends on its products for long term survival and so far they have been largely on the money. Much like Apple was with its iMac, iPod, iPhone etc. It's perhaps quite telling that an automotive engineer like myself might choose a Tesla over an Audi or Porsche SUV and would never consider buying another ICE car again as a daily driver. It's not because I've lost my mind (well maybe it is!) and they are certainly not without their flaws, but they are amazing unique cars to live with on a daily basis and other manufacturers should take note and get off their arses - which they are finally showing signs of doing - very slowly.

The Model 3 is probably the make or break of Tesla and it looks set to be a major hit. My wife already wants one over a dreary 3-series or C-class and I can see why she would. You talk about Tesla having to dominate the entire world's production of EV's but they might just do that in the next decade. They are already seen as the premium cutting edge EV brand and already sell EVs in higher numbers than any other manufacturer. I posted some of the forecast production numbers for iPace, e-tron, e-Golf, i3, Leaf 2 etc and they are all much lower than Tesla's current output. Model 3 and Model Y volumes will eclipse anything currently planned by legacy manufacturers over the next few years.

They won't get given the next decade Peteski. Markets demand results now. This is especially the case for Tesla. It relies on them for funding and if they're being debt funded now at 900 over, it makes it impossible to borrow. The only other route is equity dilution and a wholesale restructuring of its ownership structure. The question is whether investors will take the bait. I doubt they will. Musk is an obstacle. You are talking from an owner's rose coloured glasses and I get your views but I'm looking at it cold. A lot of investors will be just that...cold.

[Deleted User 1874]

Do you understand why there is so much interest in the shorting of Tesla?? The numbers don't add up. They simply don't work for financial markets or investors. It is, literally, blue sky dot com bubble crash area. These are hard figures. It doesn't matter what you've baked into future earnings, Tesla would have to dominate the entire world's production of EVs to match its valuation. Clearly, it won't. Hence, the shorters.

Yes I fully understand why they are doing it, but some of them are playing very dirty too - actively funding and spreading misinformation. Tesla depends on its products for long term survival and so far they have been largely on the money. Much like Apple was with its iMac, iPod, iPhone etc. It's perhaps quite telling that an automotive engineer like myself might choose a Tesla over an Audi or Porsche SUV and would never consider buying another ICE car again as a daily driver. It's not because I've lost my mind (well maybe it is!) and they are certainly not without their flaws, but they are amazing unique cars to live with on a daily basis and other manufacturers should take note and get off their arses - which they are finally showing signs of doing - very slowly.

The Model 3 is probably the make or break of Tesla and it looks set to be a major hit. My wife already wants one over a dreary 3-series or C-class and I can see why she would. You talk about Tesla having to dominate the entire world's production of EV's but they might just do that in the next decade. They are already seen as the premium cutting edge EV brand and already sell EVs in higher numbers than any other manufacturer. I posted some of the forecast production numbers for iPace, e-tron, e-Golf, i3, Leaf 2 etc and they are all much lower than Tesla's current output. Model 3 and Model Y volumes will eclipse anything currently planned by legacy manufacturers over the next few years.

They won't get given the next decade Peteski. Markets demand results now. This is especially the case for Tesla. It relies on them for funding and if they're being debt funded now at 900 over, it makes it impossible to borrow. The only other route is equity dilution and a wholesale restructuring of its ownership structure. The question is whether investors will take the bait. I doubt they will. Musk is an obstacle. You are talking from an owner's rose coloured glasses and I get your views but I'm looking at it cold. A lot of investors will be just that...cold.

You could be right or wrong. I just know first hand that the product is game-changing. I felt the same way when I bought my first iMac & iPod in 2002 and same again when I saw the first iPhone a few years later. My only regret is not buying Apple shares back then! And no I haven't bought any Tesla shares either! Maybe I'll regret that too in 20 years time

[GMAN75]

Yes I fully understand why they are doing it, but some of them are playing very dirty too - actively funding and spreading misinformation. Tesla depends on its products for long term survival and so far they have been largely on the money. Much like Apple was with its iMac, iPod, iPhone etc. It's perhaps quite telling that an automotive engineer like myself might choose a Tesla over an Audi or Porsche SUV and would never consider buying another ICE car again as a daily driver. It's not because I've lost my mind (well maybe it is!) and they are certainly not without their flaws, but they are amazing unique cars to live with on a daily basis and other manufacturers should take note and get off their arses - which they are finally showing signs of doing - very slowly.

The Model 3 is probably the make or break of Tesla and it looks set to be a major hit. My wife already wants one over a dreary 3-series or C-class and I can see why she would. You talk about Tesla having to dominate the entire world's production of EV's but they might just do that in the next decade. They are already seen as the premium cutting edge EV brand and already sell EVs in higher numbers than any other manufacturer. I posted some of the forecast production numbers for iPace, e-tron, e-Golf, i3, Leaf 2 etc and they are all much lower than Tesla's current output. Model 3 and Model Y volumes will eclipse anything currently planned by legacy manufacturers over the next few years.

They won't get given the next decade Peteski. Markets demand results now. This is especially the case for Tesla. It relies on them for funding and if they're being debt funded now at 900 over, it makes it impossible to borrow. The only other route is equity dilution and a wholesale restructuring of its ownership structure. The question is whether investors will take the bait. I doubt they will. Musk is an obstacle. You are talking from an owner's rose coloured glasses and I get your views but I'm looking at it cold. A lot of investors will be just that...cold.

You could be right or wrong. I just know first hand that the product is game-changing. I felt the same way when I bought my first iMac & iPod in 2002 and same again when I saw the first iPhone a few years later. My only regret is not buying Apple shares back then! And no I haven't bought any Tesla shares either! Maybe I'll regret that too in 20 years time

Peteski, trouble is Apple made a tonne of cash from the start of the ipod iphone era. They restructured and had Jobs utterly focused - after all he started Apple. Their margins were (still are!) enormous on those things! Look, if Tesla restructure and look to turn a profit, I'll be first one in! Damn it...I may even look at a car! But until then, I'll wait and see!

[Deleted User 1874]

They won't get given the next decade Peteski. Markets demand results now. This is especially the case for Tesla. It relies on them for funding and if they're being debt funded now at 900 over, it makes it impossible to borrow. The only other route is equity dilution and a wholesale restructuring of its ownership structure. The question is whether investors will take the bait. I doubt they will. Musk is an obstacle. You are talking from an owner's rose coloured glasses and I get your views but I'm looking at it cold. A lot of investors will be just that...cold.

You could be right or wrong. I just know first hand that the product is game-changing. I felt the same way when I bought my first iMac & iPod in 2002 and same again when I saw the first iPhone a few years later. My only regret is not buying Apple shares back then! And no I haven't bought any Tesla shares either! Maybe I'll regret that too in 20 years time

Peteski, trouble is Apple made a tonne of cash from the start of the ipod iphone era. They restructured and had Jobs utterly focused - after all he started Apple. Their margins were (still are!) enormous on those things! Look, if Tesla restructure and look to turn a profit, I'll be first one in! Damn it...I may even look at a car! But until then, I'll wait and see!

For me as a transient customer I'm only looking at the next 3 years tops, so I'm more here and now product focused and Tesla are still the only game in town unless you are prepared to sit it out for another year or more. There will certainly be competition when I next come to change cars, which can only be a good thing. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if I bought another Tesla if they are still functioning. The iPace doesn't quite do it for me and I very much doubt the e-tron will either. But maybe the following generation of EVs might be interesting and certainly the Porsche EV SUVs when they eventually arrive. All seems quite a way off yet though, while Tesla continue to have this market largely to themselves. The various Chinese contenders could be interesting too. The market could look very different indeed by 2025.

[Nosmo]

Peteski et al, here are some figures for you all. These aren't made up:

Tesla Market Cap... $50.29bn
BMW Market Cap...$51 bn

Tesla Revenues....$11.7bn
BMW Revenues....€98.67bn

Tesla 2017 loss...c.$2bn
BMW 2017 profit...€8.7bn

Tesla net equity...$4.2bn
BMW net equity...€54bn

Do you understand why there is so much interest in the shorting of Tesla?? The numbers don't add up. They simply don't work for financial markets or investors. It is, literally, blue sky dot com bubble crash area. These are hard figures. It doesn't matter what you've baked into future earnings, Tesla would have to dominate the entire world's production of EVs to match its valuation. Clearly, it won't. Hence, the shorters.

There is no emoticon for loud applause. If there was one you'd get it from me GMAN75. Balance sheets don't lie. If they do - you'll get found out - (again).

The argument is about survival, not product brilliance and market position today.

[Deleted User 1874]

Peteski et al, here are some figures for you all. These aren't made up:

Tesla Market Cap... $50.29bn
BMW Market Cap...$51 bn

Tesla Revenues....$11.7bn
BMW Revenues....€98.67bn

Tesla 2017 loss...c.$2bn
BMW 2017 profit...€8.7bn

Tesla net equity...$4.2bn
BMW net equity...€54bn

Just on those numbers above I read recently that Tesla revenue is forecast to increase to around $26 bn in the next year, mainly due to ramp up of Model 3 sales and basically a projection of their actual 2018 3rd quarter sales. So that would give a ratio of around 2:1 on market cap, which is actually better than many major established companies. BMW North America is already acutely aware of the impact Model 3 is going to have on their own sales, although they have perhaps been lucky with the popularity of their crossover range, which Model Y will eventually target and I'm sure BMW are really looking forward to that. Interestingly, despite Tesla posting record sales this quarter, the market is now quite wary of investing and it has had little effect on share prices which are still well down year on year.

While interesting, all this has zero affect on the car I'm actually driving. Obviously it would be most inconvenient if Tesla went bust in the next couple of years, but it doesn't look very likely given where they now are. For everyone's sake Musk could do with being tamed down and that is now very likely to happen after recent events.

[GMAN75]

Peteski et al, here are some figures for you all. These aren't made up:

Tesla Market Cap... $50.29bn
BMW Market Cap...$51 bn

Tesla Revenues....$11.7bn
BMW Revenues....€98.67bn

Tesla 2017 loss...c.$2bn
BMW 2017 profit...€8.7bn

Tesla net equity...$4.2bn
BMW net equity...€54bn

Just on those numbers above I read recently that Tesla revenue is forecast to increase to around $26 bn in the next year, mainly due to ramp up of Model 3 sales and basically a projection of their actual 2018 3rd quarter sales. So that would give a ratio of around 2:1 on market cap, which is actually better than many major established companies. BMW North America is already acutely aware of the impact Model 3 is going to have on their own sales, although they have perhaps been lucky with the popularity of their crossover range, which Model Y will eventually target and I'm sure BMW are really looking forward to that. Interestingly, despite Tesla posting record sales this quarter, the market is now quite wary of investing and it has had little effect on share prices which are still well down year on year.

While interesting, all this has zero affect on the car I'm actually driving. Obviously it would be most inconvenient if Tesla went bust in the next couple of years, but it doesn't look very likely given where they now are. For everyone's sake Musk could do with being tamed down and that is now very likely to happen after recent events.

Headline figures are usually eagerly awaited but buried in the detail are the margins. They will be key. If sales increase and your margins are negative, you can produce and sell all the cars in the world and still go bust! Tesla has to show that it is making money on its sales and that it is maintaining healthy margins. If its margins are declining or end up being negative, the market will show it.

[Deleted User 1874]

The argument is about survival, not product brilliance and market position today.

Unless of course you are merely a customer experiencing those products with no skin in the company game. Survival is not guaranteed for ANY company and especially when the tide of technology is rapidly shifting. Large automotive companies are currently going through a very tough transition and it has already cost them tens of billions simply to comply with government regulations and laws! Some of them have grossly underestimated the rate of change in the landscape. Notably Mazda are in serious danger of being left high and dry with their current long term strategy, with a forecast of only some 5% of their vehicles being full BEV by 2030.

[muxty]

Peteski et al, here are some figures for you all. These aren't made up:

Tesla Market Cap... $50.29bn
BMW Market Cap...$51 bn

Tesla Revenues....$11.7bn
BMW Revenues....€98.67bn

Tesla 2017 loss...c.$2bn
BMW 2017 profit...€8.7bn

Tesla net equity...$4.2bn
BMW net equity...€54bn

Do you understand why there is so much interest in the shorting of Tesla?? The numbers don't add up. They simply don't work for financial markets or investors. It is, literally, blue sky dot com bubble crash area. These are hard figures. It doesn't matter what you've baked into future earnings, Tesla would have to dominate the entire world's production of EVs to match its valuation. Clearly, it won't. Hence, the shorters.

There is no emoticon for loud applause. If there was one you'd get it from me GMAN75. Balance sheets don't lie. If they do - you'll get found out - (again).

The argument is about survival, not product brilliance and market position today.

I couldn't agree less.

Thing is that "old rules does not apply" and it should not be compared with some sort of dot com bubble. Having grown a company that in one year accelerate sales from 25k cars Q2 2017 to 85k cars Q2 2018 they're doing a lot of things right. And while Tesla move the goal post in a pace that is quite impressive, the nay sayers find new negative aspects to critic Tesla about. A few months ago the analysts laughed at the low productions volumes of Model 3 and Internet was full of it. Now when they have showed that they can produce 5k cars/week the negative aspects move over to other topics. When Tesla start to be profitable in a quarter or two the critics will find new things. And so it moves on...

The main asset and competitive advantage that Tesla has is that they're a software company and they understand EV drivetrain/battery tech better than the competition. They also focus 100% on EV which is a huge benefit that is not often talked about. Also their direct to customer sales model is something that most of the old auto companies wish they had. Not to start to talk about the Autopilot stack. Tesla have hundreds of thousands cars that train their Neural Networks/machine learning (in shadow mode). In published Matrix some of analysts place Waymo and most other companies ahead of Tesla, but in a few years it can look very very different. Just because Tesla has a complete different AI approach than the rest.

Also don't forget that Tesla Model S has been on sale since 2013 and what "old auto" now launches is not better 5-6 years later if we talk about the EV drivetrain, batteries and efficiency. I mean, the Germans brag about their wind tunnels and aerodynamics, but still they can't with their 100 years of experience create a product that is close to being as aerodynamic as either Model S and X (in their respective classes). That says something.

Now the old companies start to announce (and to some extent) roll out their expensive first try on long range EVs at 80-100k. When they do that Tesla is one step ahead and roll out the less expensive Model 3 with long range and all the benefits that the X/S has at a lower price point.

Just by looking at the planned production volumes for Audi E-tron, i-Pace, Taycan etc I think that old auto is in for a rude awakening in a few years. And speaking of BMW. They actually loosing ground a lot. They're even further behind and if watching the latest press releases of BMW i4 (2021) etc it's borderline hilarious.

[Deleted User 1874]

Peteski et al, here are some figures for you all. These aren't made up:

Tesla Market Cap... $50.29bn
BMW Market Cap...$51 bn

Tesla Revenues....$11.7bn
BMW Revenues....€98.67bn

Tesla 2017 loss...c.$2bn
BMW 2017 profit...€8.7bn

Tesla net equity...$4.2bn
BMW net equity...€54bn

Just on those numbers above I read recently that Tesla revenue is forecast to increase to around $26 bn in the next year, mainly due to ramp up of Model 3 sales and basically a projection of their actual 2018 3rd quarter sales. So that would give a ratio of around 2:1 on market cap, which is actually better than many major established companies. BMW North America is already acutely aware of the impact Model 3 is going to have on their own sales, although they have perhaps been lucky with the popularity of their crossover range, which Model Y will eventually target and I'm sure BMW are really looking forward to that. Interestingly, despite Tesla posting record sales this quarter, the market is now quite wary of investing and it has had little effect on share prices which are still well down year on year.

While interesting, all this has zero affect on the car I'm actually driving. Obviously it would be most inconvenient if Tesla went bust in the next couple of years, but it doesn't look very likely given where they now are. For everyone's sake Musk could do with being tamed down and that is now very likely to happen after recent events.

Headline figures are usually eagerly awaited but buried in the detail are the margins. They will be key. If sales increase and your margins are negative, you can produce and sell all the cars in the world and still go bust! Tesla has to show that it is making money on its sales and that it is maintaining healthy margins. If its margins are declining or end up being negative, the market will show it.

I can't say I've looked into it all that closely, but I believe Tesla's margins on EVs are much higher than any other manufacture of EVs. I believe around 25% gross margin on Model S and X and I think they have the same target for Model 3, but that remains to be seen. Battery costs are coming down, so that should help, as should increased economies of scale. Now that Model 3 production rate is over 5000 units per week it should soon become clear what those margins are, but I don't sense any impending doom or gloom from those who are closely following all this, although there are no shortage of big mouthed commentators who don't even stick to the basic facts. For example Bob Lutz was mouthing off yet again recently about Tesla failing, but none of the figures he quoted stood up to the simplest of scrutiny. But the popular media love stuff like that.