Why you have (probably) already bought your last car

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Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

happy days wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:08 pm Fine for cities, but if you're any way rural (which quite a lot of the population actually are) a system like this falls on its arse.
Yes I think so too. But it's the cities that have the most problems with traffic and pollution, not so much rural areas. For us a personal car is a total necessity to live. There is a token gesture local bus and taxis are available, but certainly not at the drop of a hat! An EV is proving to be a great solution for our needs, a much better fit than a conventional car.

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Post by Dandock »

Peteski wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:56 pm
happy days wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:08 pm Fine for cities, but if you're any way rural (which quite a lot of the population actually are) a system like this falls on its arse.
Yes I think so too. But it's the cities that have the most problems with traffic and pollution, not so much rural areas. For us a personal car is a total necessity to live. There is a token gesture local bus and taxis are available, but certainly not at the drop of a hat! An EV is proving to be a great solution for our needs, a much better fit than a conventional car.
+1. Neither is it viable for town/city folk who travel more widely for which a practical infrastructure simply does not exist.
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Post by Col Lamb »

Think about it in a future where autonomous Taxis are the norm,

Your own car is no longer outside your home and you want to go into say the Town centre.

You call for an autonomous Taxi, it drives from wherever it is (empty journey 1) to pick you up and takes you into Town, when you get out it drives off to wherever it is programmed to go to (empty journey 2).

When it is time to go back home the reverse happens.

So the autonomous Taxi has four journeys when it is empty just to take you on your journeys.

No multiply these empty Taxi journeys by your estimate of the number of people wanting to travel.

That is a lot of extra road journeys.
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Post by Dandock »

Col Lamb wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:13 pm Think about it in a future where autonomous Taxis are the norm,

Your own car is no longer outside your home and you want to go into say the Town centre.

You call for an autonomous Taxi, it drives from wherever it is (empty journey 1) to pick you up and takes you into Town, when you get out it drives off to wherever it is programmed to go to (empty journey 2).

When it is time to go back home the reverse happens.

So the autonomous Taxi has four journeys when it is empty just to take you on your journeys.

No multiply these empty Taxi journeys by your estimate of the number of people wanting to travel.

That is a lot of extra road journeys.
So viable in towns and cities but definitely not outside.
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Post by Paul »

My eldest can’t even get an Uber from our house into town at the weekend.....supply and demand winning the day. It’ll be a long while until that changes for us rural dwellers!
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Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

Col Lamb wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:13 pm Think about it in a future where autonomous Taxis are the norm,

Your own car is no longer outside your home and you want to go into say the Town centre.

You call for an autonomous Taxi, it drives from wherever it is (empty journey 1) to pick you up and takes you into Town, when you get out it drives off to wherever it is programmed to go to (empty journey 2).

When it is time to go back home the reverse happens.

So the autonomous Taxi has four journeys when it is empty just to take you on your journeys.

No multiply these empty Taxi journeys by your estimate of the number of people wanting to travel.

That is a lot of extra road journeys.
Exactly the same as a conventional taxi in terms of empty journeys except for no driver to pay. But still not a great solution for replacing your personal transport unless perhaps in a city environment consisting of short predictable journeys so you can schedule a vehicle to be available for your use. The compelling argument in favour of its use will be super low cost. Conventional taxis are very expensive and not a great experience on the whole.
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Post by N13LXC »

TaaS is a good idea, but just isn't workable. it's a lot to do with JIT (Just in time) or Journey on Demand (let's call that JoD).

Human behavior is such that we want something to be available as and when we need or want it, even living in a city, this model would fall over - ever tried to get an Uber past 11:30pm on a Thursday in London? Not a chance as demand far outstrips supply. Unless we're going to flood the road with these Taxi's, meaning all the cost savings would be lost due to dead metal lying around...

Could write a massive rebuttal on this, but TLCBA...(too long, cant be arsed...) ha

good piece and will cause good debate...
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Post by Nosmo »

Col Lamb wrote: Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:37 pm Interesting article, it is certainly not going to take the 100 years as Goron eludes but only 21 if the banning of ICEs does occur Globally by 2040.

Governments, markets, environmental etc, all play their part but did Germany not recently pass an edict that their date for banning ICE cars should be 2030.

If Germany stick to this date then we can expect a very rapid change in the 20’s from ICE to EV by the German manufacturers.
The operative word here, I believe, is IF. Germany is massively reliant on car manufacturing (15% of GDP??) and in the top 5 of car manufacturers globally. The politicians will pull the trigger when they are told by VAG, BMW and Mercedes that they are ready. The recent announcement for Porsche to take the lead on developing group platforms and systems seems logical from a cost sharing perspective. Merc and BMW will forge their EV alliances as they did with ICE.

Just a thought
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Post by Dandock »

Nosmo wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:35 pm
Col Lamb wrote: Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:37 pm Interesting article, it is certainly not going to take the 100 years as Goron eludes but only 21 if the banning of ICEs does occur Globally by 2040.

Governments, markets, environmental etc, all play their part but did Germany not recently pass an edict that their date for banning ICE cars should be 2030.

If Germany stick to this date then we can expect a very rapid change in the 20’s from ICE to EV by the German manufacturers.
The operative word here, I believe, is IF. Germany is massively reliant on car manufacturing (15% of GDP??) and in the top 5 of car manufacturers globally. The politicians will pull the trigger when they are told by VAG, BMW and Mercedes that they are ready. The recent announcement for Porsche to take the lead on developing group platforms and systems seems logical from a cost sharing perspective. Merc and BMW will forge their EV alliances as they did with ICE.

Just a thought
Well they’ve made a start - if the embryonic Ionity coverage is anything to by. Notable absent from the U.K. though! 😱
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Post by Deleted User 1874 »

Nosmo wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:35 pm
Col Lamb wrote: Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:37 pm Interesting article, it is certainly not going to take the 100 years as Goron eludes but only 21 if the banning of ICEs does occur Globally by 2040.

Governments, markets, environmental etc, all play their part but did Germany not recently pass an edict that their date for banning ICE cars should be 2030.

If Germany stick to this date then we can expect a very rapid change in the 20’s from ICE to EV by the German manufacturers.
The operative word here, I believe, is IF. Germany is massively reliant on car manufacturing (15% of GDP??) and in the top 5 of car manufacturers globally. The politicians will pull the trigger when they are told by VAG, BMW and Mercedes that they are ready. The recent announcement for Porsche to take the lead on developing group platforms and systems seems logical from a cost sharing perspective. Merc and BMW will forge their EV alliances as they did with ICE.

Just a thought
Since when has being massively dependent on a specific industry guaranteed its future survival, especially given major changes in technology? Our own recent history is littered with entire industry failures!
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