Why you have (probably) already bought your last car

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SRDL
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Post by SRDL »

Interesting piece from the BBC today - I particularly liked the "before and after" photos of 5th Avenue.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45786690
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goron59
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Post by goron59 »

Interesting piece, and I suspect for many there will be very few cars being bought from now on, depending on where you live, how you allow society to program your brain, etc.

I do take task with this though:
In 1908 the first Model T Ford rolled off the production line; by 1930 the equestrian age was, to all intents and purposes, over - and all thanks to the disruptive power of an earlier tech innovation - the internal combustion engine.
Yet, the electric car was an even earlier tech innovation - electric cars - practically available in the mid-to late 1800s.

So if we're going to use the ICE replaces horses argument for the EVs replacing ICE one, it kind of falls apart. Unless the electric car is going to take over in a century or so.
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Dandock
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Post by Dandock »

An interesting piece but based on ideals. It’s one thing for product to be available but the infrastructure investment has to be there also which as we all know isn’t happening any time soon in this rusty dusty old country.

It’s also just one opinion. BMWs view is that they will still be building vehicles with ICE in 2030.

They may be wrong too. They both maybe.

Another interesting article I read today was of the Tesla Effect. This related to the pressure that EVs will put on Big Oil and their future and oil prices as sales drop.
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Semerka
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Post by Semerka »

Yet there are still a lot of horses trotting on the roads where I live (together with lycra warriors). 😆

Not sure pikies will be buying EV's any time soon.
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Col Lamb
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Post by Col Lamb »

Interesting article, it is certainly not going to take the 100 years as Goron eludes but only 21 if the banning of ICEs does occur Globally by 2040.

Governments, markets, environmental etc, all play their part but did Germany not recently pass an edict that their date for banning ICE cars should be 2030.

If Germany stick to this date then we can expect a very rapid change in the 20’s from ICE to EV by the German manufacturers.

I would think that if it has not stated yet that the generation of models available from 2025 will have been designed from the ground up with electric as their main motive power, yes there may well be hybrids and ICE only variants.

It is interesting that the Teslas Model 3 has a completely modular drive and suspension system that could easily be removed and fitted into another body, shades of the original innovative Mini in the design perhaps.
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jesim1
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Post by jesim1 »

I get and understand some of the article, but it's still just a theory, and a lot of it - particularly the timescales, are flawed.

As it's mostly still theory I'm not going to spend too much effort shooting it down, but rush hour is still rush hour(S :oops: ) and I don't see a load of people suddenly giving up their privacy and convenience by sharing a taxi 10 ways which will take forever to drop you off as it tries to find the homes of all the other occupants?

Electric is here and growing, automatous vehicles are on their way, but still a fair bit off from being accepted, and I don't think any of us have bought their last car just yet :D

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Post by Deleted User 1874 »

I think the true self-driving car (a key part of this theory) is still a lot further away than people think and that includes some people in the industry who have a vested interest and certainly quite a few politicians. I'm sure it will eventually arrive once all the road infrastructure is "homologated" and human driven cars are banned, but that could easily be half a century or more away from reality. The vast majority of our towns and cities are barely suitable for human driven cars, never mind robots! The automotive industry is a slow moving, highly conservative beast.

If we focus on the next 10-20 years, the obvious change is going to be the displacement of traditional ICE powered cars with EVs and hybrids. That path is now pretty much set in stone by both politicians and the industry itself. The stuff about robot taxis etc I think is more long term and will probably require a new generation to buy into the concept. For sure it might happen sooner in specific controlled closed areas of major cities, but not a mainstream solution for use on ordinary mixed road networks.
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Post by johnd »

Peteski wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:32 am For sure it might happen sooner in specific controlled closed areas of major cities, but not a mainstream solution for use on ordinary mixed road networks.
Or maybe some of the proposed new towns could be planned/designed with this specifically in mind. OK, still very much a small niche, but one that could happen outside of London etc.
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Post by Deleted User 1874 »

johnd wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:40 am
Peteski wrote: Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:32 am For sure it might happen sooner in specific controlled closed areas of major cities, but not a mainstream solution for use on ordinary mixed road networks.
Or maybe some of the proposed new towns could be planned/designed with this specifically in mind. OK, still very much a small niche, but one that could happen outside of London etc.
Quite possibly. If you compare say Milton Keynes with its modern wide US style grid road network to Oxford with it's ancient narrow roads, it's pretty obvious which would lend itself better to automated cars. Obviously designing a new town from scratch would make it even easier to implement an autonomous car friendly network. I think another key factor is complete segregation of automated cars from human driven cars. I just can't see how they can live safely side by side. We know how "people" drive and it's pretty ugly and unpredictable. Imagine a load of automated cars trying to navigate safely around a typical assortment of driver stereotypes. It would be carnage both on the roads and in the courts!
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Post by happy days »

Fine for cities, but if you're any way rural (which quite a lot of the population actually are) a system like this falls on its arse.
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