Volkswagen’s plan to kill off Tesla - FT 30 Jan 19

The place to discuss everything else..
User avatar
nsm3
Posts: 522
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:22 am
Location: Worcs

Post by nsm3 »

I've a feeling the car industry have possibly invented, or been forced to generate, a hole in their medium term revenues, going forward? This may affect available funds for EV development and the speed of implementation?

The messages going out to Joe Public seem to be "why would you buy one of our ice cars, that will be worthless in short order, but please, buy one of our ice cars".

I'm looking now to keep my SD until at least 2025 (8 years old), mainly because residuals have been hit, but current EV offerings are still somewhat expensive/confused/limited/unattractive/other things you may think of. I'm convinced that my next car will be some form of EV, but I'm just not prepared to jump in now/soon and I'm sure plenty of other people will be thinking the same way?

If I'm correct, car builders revenue streams will take a hit?
Current: Macan S Diesel
Previous: 981 Cayman S
Previous: 997.1 GT3
Previous: 997.1 C2S

User avatar
SAC1
Posts: 3785
Joined: Wed May 24, 2017 8:24 pm
Location: near BATH

Post by SAC1 »

Well put NSM3 and totally agree.. This confused situation is doing nothing for the car industry's new vehicle sales whatever motive poweris in the vehicle. Examples are the newly launched X5 and Q7/8 where diesel is still predicted to be their big selling models.
Steve

2020 GTS in Sapphire Blue
(sold) 2017 SD in Rhodium Silver
Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

nsm3 wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:06 am
The messages going out to Joe Public seem to be "why would you buy one of our ice cars, that will be worthless in short order, but please, buy one of our ice cars".
Spot on I think. When you walk into a Jaguar showroom you are instantly faced with conflicting marketing of iPace vs FPace and one of them is always going to lose out on the sale. I couldn't help noticing that the FPace is actually considerably more practical than the iPace as a family SUV and there is now suddenly a faster flagship FPace added to the range, which makes me wonder if that was all deliberate, in which case they have an inherent problem competing against anyone not making deliberate compromises on their EVs simply to avoid internal competition. For example is the new Audi e-tron SUV actually going to be allowed to be "better" than the Q5/Q7 range which they make tons of money on?
User avatar
VanB
Posts: 3730
Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:58 pm

Post by VanB »

JLR is a confused company often competing with itself in various market segments but that's a side issue. All mainstream manufacturers bringing out their BEV offerings are, to a greater or lesser extent, going to cannibalise sales of their traditional ICE offerings. Given the cost of product development, this has to hurt profitability, at least in the short term.
Current - 991.2 GTS C4 GT Silver
Previous: Macan GTS Night Blue
Previous: 981 Cayman S Agate
Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

VanB wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:56 pm Given the cost of product development, this has to hurt profitability, at least in the short term.
Absolutely. If VW are planning to spend £30 bn or whatever on EV development in the next few years with little sales revenue to show for it, that has to hurt their short term and even medium term bottom line. Plus when that investment eventually does produce some actual significant sales revenue it will be mostly at the expense of their own ICE vehicles or if they are lucky other mainstream competitors ICE vehicles. Killing off Tesla sales has no real relevance to the bigger picture.
User avatar
Pivot
Posts: 1535
Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:41 pm

Post by Pivot »

Rab is making an interesting observation... one can compare automotive to other analogue industries.

Gramophone was a king for 100 years too, briefly superseded by digital CD, which was swiftly made redundant by digital downloads.

Innovation cycles are accelerating at an exponential rate. Young people are buying fewer cars and use Uber and similar services instead. When I travel, I pref to use Uber, so that I don’t get ripped-off by unscrupulous taxi drivers. Auto industry has to respond.

I do believe that EV is a transition architecture, which will be superseded by the autonomous digital vehicles. I hope that I will have one before I reach ripe old age when someone will relieve me of my drivers license.
Current: 911 Carrera T - PPM9RU51
On order: 911 Targa 4S - PPDV8NY4
johnd
Posts: 666
Joined: Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:23 pm

Post by johnd »

Pivot wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:13 pm I do believe that EV is a transition architecture, which will be superseded by the autonomous digital vehicles.
WTF is a 'digital vehicle'? The analogy might have some credibility in the realm of things that can be represented as bit-streams like audio, still pictures and video. But without getting into imagining Star Trek futures (where you can beam things from place to place) I'm really struggling to see the relevance to vehicles that might appear in the next 20-30 years. All vehicles are still going to need some shape and structure, a drive-train and power source.

Sorry, but I just don't believe that some new power source or drive-train is going to be available in eg 15-20 years' time of which we have no conception as yet. Technology can make surprising progress but it still takes significant time for radically new technologies to be discovered and developed. Right now the most credible power source for base-load (ie the foundation on which renewables will add much of the energy being consumed) in eg 2050 looks likely to be small-scale nuclear fusion reactors - for example see the work currently being done by Tokamak Energy here in the UK (somewhere near Culham I think) - several good short videos on YouTube - or the small reactor development teams spawned out of MIT. And that energy will likely be distributed as electricity to power EV-type drivetrains, though hopefully with better battery technology by 2050.
Macan SD (Rhodium) www.porsche-code.com/PH4H6XU3 June 2016

Real mpg at Fuelly
User avatar
Pivot
Posts: 1535
Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:41 pm

Post by Pivot »

johnd wrote: WTF is a 'digital vehicle'? The analogy might have some credibility in the realm of things that can be represented as bit-streams like audio, still pictures and video. But without getting into imagining Star Trek futures (where you can beam things from place to place) I'm really struggling to see the relevance to vehicles that might appear in the next 20-30 years. All vehicles are still going to need some shape and structure, a drive-train and power source.
Digitally controlled vehicle [emoji851]
VAG Swarm system, line change, cruise control, auto parallel parking... are the building blocks. All of it will have to be strung together... digitally
Image
Current: 911 Carrera T - PPM9RU51
On order: 911 Targa 4S - PPDV8NY4
Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

Pivot wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:13 pm I do believe that EV is a transition architecture, which will be superseded by the autonomous digital vehicles.
.....which are going to be powered by what? Most likely an EV drivetrain IMO. Really I think the autonomous vehicle concept has nothing to do with choice of powertrain, but it naturally lends itself better to an EV than ICE as you have more precise control over torque and the whole thing is just easier to monitor and control electronically. An ICE powertrain is quite a crude mechanical beast in comparison, which would only serve to complicate the automation process.
User avatar
Pivot
Posts: 1535
Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:41 pm

Post by Pivot »

Peteski wrote:
Pivot wrote: Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:13 pm I do believe that EV is a transition architecture, which will be superseded by the autonomous digital vehicles.
.....which are going to be powered by what? Most likely an EV drivetrain IMO.
Natural fit... exactly right.
Current: 911 Carrera T - PPM9RU51
On order: 911 Targa 4S - PPDV8NY4
Post Reply

  • Similar Topics
    Replies
    Views
    Last post