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Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

goron59 wrote: Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:32 pm
Peteski wrote: Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:04 pm
goron59 wrote: Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:34 pm
Podpoint have 3 options, 3.6kW, 7kW and 22kW.
IME 3.6 kW is too slow for overnight charging, but 7 kW is fine. 22 kW requires a 3-phase supply, which is expensive unless you happen to already have 3-phase installed for some other purpose.
Yea, that's my thoughts too. I could have the 22 but my use case for the EV would only need it half charged every 2 or 3 days.
22 kW sounds great, but in practice I found it wouldn't make any practical difference to my usage.

With a 75 kWh battery I can charge roughly 10% per hour at 8 kW and I rarely need more than about 30% top up charge per night, so that's only 3 hours on charge and even the odd time I need more it's never going to be a problem overnight. But once you start dropping down to 3kW it can get very marginal, with a 30% top up then needing around 8 hours charge. If you need more charge then you soon run out of night!

So a 7 or 8 kW charger is perfect for home charging a single large battery EV. Only if we had 2 large battery EVs would I consider a 3-phase upgrade to get up to 22 kW.

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Pivot
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Post by Pivot »

Peteski wrote:
Pivot wrote: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:58 pm
Ray G wrote:
Have you perhaps forgotten

d) those that, at the moment, have no interest in EVs until there is an established platform?
I am in a group E:

e) waiting in anticipation for power storage/weight ratio to improve!

Just imagine how spectacularly manoeuvrable the EVs will become when we get 2x, 4x, 8x, 16x power storage density improvement.
I think you're dreaming. People often use a simple analogy with computer data storage, but we're not going to see anything like the same rate of progress with batteries. It's going to be far more incremental and even 2x storage density would be a game-changing improvement.

Today we are looking at around 600 kg for a 90 kWh battery and it is extremely unlikely that we will see 300 kg batteries of the same capacity any time in the next decade or more and a 37 kg battery (16x density improvement) is the work of science fiction as far as our current generation is concerned.

At the moment, the main challenge for mainstream automotive companies is simply sourcing current spec batteries in enough volume at a reasonable price. Again Tesla is leading the charge on that front with their own battery production facilities, currently in partnership with Panasonic.
Yes I am dreaming... I thought we are discussing future EVs.

Have you heard of exponential growth? Gordon Moore is one of many contributors: computing power - Moore’s Law; telecoms network - Metcalfe’s Law, info storage - Kryder’s Law, ... its time for top engineers to solve energy storage problem.

Old fashion Lead-Acid batteries had density ~40Wh/kg
Current Li-Ion batteries have density of ~600Wh/kg
Iron-Air batteries are predicted to have density of ~1200 Wh/kg
Lithium-Air batteries would have 11’400 Wh/kg but at this stage are very difficult to make.
Ref: https://scitechdaily.com/iron-air-batte ... batteries/

An alternative is to take a view that modern humanoids took 100’000 years to invent a motor-vehicle, with that rate of innovation we are in big trouble.
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goron59
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Post by goron59 »

The charge rate of a 7kW charger at home is where a much lighter car comes in handy. Bigger, heavier cars need a lot more juice to do the same range. Renewable/free energy notwithstanding, it's good to have efficiency.
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Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

Pivot wrote: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:28 pm
Peteski wrote:
Pivot wrote: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:58 pm

I am in a group E:

e) waiting in anticipation for power storage/weight ratio to improve!

Just imagine how spectacularly manoeuvrable the EVs will become when we get 2x, 4x, 8x, 16x power storage density improvement.
I think you're dreaming. People often use a simple analogy with computer data storage, but we're not going to see anything like the same rate of progress with batteries. It's going to be far more incremental and even 2x storage density would be a game-changing improvement.

Today we are looking at around 600 kg for a 90 kWh battery and it is extremely unlikely that we will see 300 kg batteries of the same capacity any time in the next decade or more and a 37 kg battery (16x density improvement) is the work of science fiction as far as our current generation is concerned.

At the moment, the main challenge for mainstream automotive companies is simply sourcing current spec batteries in enough volume at a reasonable price. Again Tesla is leading the charge on that front with their own battery production facilities, currently in partnership with Panasonic.
Yes I am dreaming... I thought we are discussing future EVs.

Have you heard of exponential growth? Gordon Moore is one of many contributors: computing power - Moore’s Law; telecoms network - Metcalfe’s Law, info storage - Kryder’s Law, ... its time for top engineers to solve energy storage problem.

Old fashion Lead-Acid batteries had density ~40Wh/kg
Current Li-Ion batteries have density of ~600Wh/kg
Iron-Air batteries are predicted to have density of ~1200 Wh/kg
Lithium-Air batteries would have 11’400 Wh/kg but at this stage are very difficult to make.
Ref: https://scitechdaily.com/iron-air-batte ... batteries/

An alternative is to take a view that modern humanoids took 100’000 years to invent a motor-vehicle, with that rate of innovation we are in big trouble.
I understand the concept of exponential growth, but quoting laws that apply to other completely unrelated technology has no real credibility. EV battery development will follow its own path and that looks set to be a much slower process. It's not like Li-Ion batteries are particularly new tech, having been researched since the mid 70s and in production from the early 90s.

I don't think your quoted figure of 600 Wh/kg is correct either. I believe it's more like 200-250 Wh/kg for state-of-the-art EV batteries today. Maybe you are thinking of power density i.e. W/kg which relates to the maximum power output in W rather than storage capacity in Wh. 600 W/kg and considerably higher is achievable today.

All I'm saying here is that if you are seriously waiting for 4x battery energy density before considering your first EV then you are likely to be waiting multiple decades. If such a step was possible in the next 5 years then that would be seriously bad news for anyone still manufacturing ICE cars in competition. On that basis my next EV would have a 600 mile range and be about 300 kg lighter. It would probably have about 1000 hp too if we apply the same rationale to power density.
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Post by Pivot »

Peteski wrote: I understand the concept of exponential growth, but quoting laws that apply to other completely unrelated technology has no real credibility. EV battery development will follow its own path and that looks set to be a much slower process. It's not like Li-Ion batteries are particularly new tech, having been researched since the mid 70s and in production from the early 90s.
I am not entirely convinced that you follow. I provided multiple reference points, and you continue making absolute statements, like a self-appointed expert.

The point I am making, is that Moore’s Law is not the only one, there are other related ones and its about time that someone climbs into energy storage.

Musk has put his own money on the line, he took head-on powerful auto industry (backed by omni-potent oil industry) and proved that EVs are viable. While Musk is moving on to Mars, someone else has to continue the R&D to improve the energy storage.
Peteski wrote: I don't think your quoted figure of 600 Wh/kg is correct either. I believe it's more like 200-250 Wh/kg for state-of-the-art EV batteries today. Maybe you are thinking of power density i.e. W/kg which relates to the maximum power output in W rather than storage capacity in Wh. 600 W/kg and considerably higher is achievable today.
I provided a reference... there are multiple ratios to consider. I am demonstrating that the progress is being made in the labs and should be commercialised in the near future, so it is not 30-years away.
Peteski wrote: All I'm saying here is that if you are seriously waiting for 4x battery energy density before considering your first EV then you are likely to be waiting multiple decades. If such a step was possible in the next 5 years then that would be seriously bad news for anyone still manufacturing ICE cars in competition. On that basis my next EV would have a 600 mile range and be about 300 kg lighter. It would probably have about 1000 hp too if we apply the same rationale to power density.
I find your luck of faith in engineering disturbing [emoji38]
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Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

Pivot wrote: Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:58 pm
Peteski wrote: I understand the concept of exponential growth, but quoting laws that apply to other completely unrelated technology has no real credibility. EV battery development will follow its own path and that looks set to be a much slower process. It's not like Li-Ion batteries are particularly new tech, having been researched since the mid 70s and in production from the early 90s.
I am not entirely convinced that you follow. I provided multiple reference points, and you continue making absolute statements, like a self-appointed expert.

The point I am making, is that Moore’s Law is not the only one, there are other related ones and its about time that someone climbs into energy storage.

Musk has put his own money on the line, he took head-on powerful auto industry (backed by omni-potent oil industry) and proved that EVs are viable. While Musk is moving on to Mars, someone else has to continue the R&D to improve the energy storage.
Peteski wrote: I don't think your quoted figure of 600 Wh/kg is correct either. I believe it's more like 200-250 Wh/kg for state-of-the-art EV batteries today. Maybe you are thinking of power density i.e. W/kg which relates to the maximum power output in W rather than storage capacity in Wh. 600 W/kg and considerably higher is achievable today.
I provided a reference... there are multiple ratios to consider. I am demonstrating that the progress is being made in the labs and should be commercialised in the near future, so it is not 30-years away.
Peteski wrote: All I'm saying here is that if you are seriously waiting for 4x battery energy density before considering your first EV then you are likely to be waiting multiple decades. If such a step was possible in the next 5 years then that would be seriously bad news for anyone still manufacturing ICE cars in competition. On that basis my next EV would have a 600 mile range and be about 300 kg lighter. It would probably have about 1000 hp too if we apply the same rationale to power density.
I find your luck of faith in engineering disturbing [emoji38]
I don't understand any of this ^ I'm a professional engineer so I have plenty of "faith" in engineering. Moore's Law, Metcalfe's Law, Kryder's Law. What have any of these got to do with Li-Ion battery development?

It took around 20 years for Li-Ion batteries to go from research to early production and nearly 30 years after that we are finally starting to see the first crop of viable EVs. In the same time frame computing power has increased monumentally faster, not that it has any real relevance other than an anecdote for technological progress. Not all technology progresses at the same rate and Li-Ion batteries are proving to be quite a challenge, especially on the large scale required for EVs.

I'm not a self-appointed expert, I just read a little and have a bit of common sense. So anyway for a bit of fun what year do you expect to buy a 4x energy density EV?
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Post by johnd »

Peteski wrote: Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:31 pm Not all technology progresses at the same rate
Indeed. Commercial passenger jets are still flying at much the same speed they achieved 60 years ago with the sound barrier a real obstacle to shorter journey times. (OK, Concorde was an interesting exception but absolutely not a commercial success other than some limited halo effect.)

Some technologies are much more amenable to (relatively) rapid evolution than others.
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Post by GMAN75 »

Pivot wrote: Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:58 pm
Peteski wrote: I understand the concept of exponential growth, but quoting laws that apply to other completely unrelated technology has no real credibility. EV battery development will follow its own path and that looks set to be a much slower process. It's not like Li-Ion batteries are particularly new tech, having been researched since the mid 70s and in production from the early 90s.
I am not entirely convinced that you follow. I provided multiple reference points, and you continue making absolute statements, like a self-appointed expert.

The point I am making, is that Moore’s Law is not the only one, there are other related ones and its about time that someone climbs into energy storage.

Musk has put his own money on the line, he took head-on powerful auto industry (backed by omni-potent oil industry) and proved that EVs are viable. While Musk is moving on to Mars, someone else has to continue the R&D to improve the energy storage.
Peteski wrote: I don't think your quoted figure of 600 Wh/kg is correct either. I believe it's more like 200-250 Wh/kg for state-of-the-art EV batteries today. Maybe you are thinking of power density i.e. W/kg which relates to the maximum power output in W rather than storage capacity in Wh. 600 W/kg and considerably higher is achievable today.
I provided a reference... there are multiple ratios to consider. I am demonstrating that the progress is being made in the labs and should be commercialised in the near future, so it is not 30-years away.
Peteski wrote: All I'm saying here is that if you are seriously waiting for 4x battery energy density before considering your first EV then you are likely to be waiting multiple decades. If such a step was possible in the next 5 years then that would be seriously bad news for anyone still manufacturing ICE cars in competition. On that basis my next EV would have a 600 mile range and be about 300 kg lighter. It would probably have about 1000 hp too if we apply the same rationale to power density.
I find your luck of faith in engineering disturbing [emoji38]
Are we quoting Vader now? :lol:

Don't try to frighten us ICE guys with your sorcerer's ways. Your sad devotion to that EV religion has not helped you conjure up the necessary 4X battery density, or given you clairvoyance enough to predict when it will happen! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Post by Wing Commander »

GMAN75 wrote: Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:11 am
Pivot wrote: Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:58 pm
I find your luck of faith in engineering disturbing [emoji38]
Are we quoting Vader now? :lol:
:lol: :lol:
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Post by Dandock »

johnd wrote: Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:00 pm
Peteski wrote: Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:31 pm Not all technology progresses at the same rate
Indeed. Commercial passenger jets are still flying at much the same speed they achieved 60 years ago with the sound barrier a real obstacle to shorter journey times. (OK, Concorde was an interesting exception but absolutely not a commercial success other than some limited halo effect.)

Some technologies are much more amenable to (relatively) rapid evolution than others.
Example. Back in the mid 80s we were engaged to produce brochures for Racal-Redac who, if I remember correctly, designed the systems that designed and/or produced computer chips. To illustrate their product we needed to take pics of the screen that showed the chip architecture. The guy involved was one of less than a handful in the world that understood the technology. So we could shoot the various levels he kept drilling down into chip after chip after chip. He told us that millions of what we were looking at would fit on the head of a pin! At that point in time it was beyond normal comprehension. And probably still is!

We asked when this would be available.
Reply - in about 20 years!
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