Peteski wrote:
I understand the concept of exponential growth, but quoting laws that apply to other completely unrelated technology has no real credibility. EV battery development will follow its own path and that looks set to be a much slower process. It's not like Li-Ion batteries are particularly new tech, having been researched since the mid 70s and in production from the early 90s.
I am not entirely convinced that you follow. I provided multiple reference points, and you continue making absolute statements, like a self-appointed expert.
The point I am making, is that Moore’s Law is not the only one, there are other related ones and its about time that someone climbs into energy storage.
Musk has put his own money on the line, he took head-on powerful auto industry (backed by omni-potent oil industry) and proved that EVs are viable. While Musk is moving on to Mars, someone else has to continue the R&D to improve the energy storage.
Peteski wrote:
I don't think your quoted figure of 600 Wh/kg is correct either. I believe it's more like 200-250 Wh/kg for state-of-the-art EV batteries today. Maybe you are thinking of power density i.e. W/kg which relates to the maximum power output in W rather than storage capacity in Wh. 600 W/kg and considerably higher is achievable today.
I provided a reference... there are multiple ratios to consider. I am demonstrating that the progress is being made in the labs and should be commercialised in the near future, so it is not 30-years away.
Peteski wrote:
All I'm saying here is that if you are seriously waiting for 4x battery energy density before considering your first EV then you are likely to be waiting multiple decades. If such a step was possible in the next 5 years then that would be seriously bad news for anyone still manufacturing ICE cars in competition. On that basis my next EV would have a 600 mile range and be about 300 kg lighter. It would probably have about 1000 hp too if we apply the same rationale to power density.
I find your luck of faith in engineering disturbing [emoji38]