Another one bites the dust. Honda closing Swindon

[Pivot]

We live in a democracy, the majority voted to leave, its Parliaments responsibility to make that happen. The fact that the current government has completely screwed this up and the opposition is even more incompetent has got us to a position where no one really knows what the outcome is going to be. That is not the fault of the people that voted to leave it is the fault of the politicians who put party politics and personal views ahead of the those of the populous.

Well, after the referendum, we learned that the promises were fictional and we don’t know who stands to benefit from the sanctions self-imposed on business and people.

Also, are you comfortable with the PM presenting largely the same deal to the MPs for the third time (!) but people can vote only once (?), even though you were lied to in the first instance?

[Paul]

mmm .... fictional promises....from politicians.....surely not?

Being lied to....? No.....that’s never happened before has it?.........

[Miopyk]

We live in a democracy, the majority voted to leave, its Parliaments responsibility to make that happen. The fact that the current government has completely screwed this up and the opposition is even more incompetent has got us to a position where no one really knows what the outcome is going to be. That is not the fault of the people that voted to leave it is the fault of the politicians who put party politics and personal views ahead of the those of the populous.

Well, after the referendum, we learned that the promises were fictional and we don’t know who stands to benefit from the sanctions self-imposed on business and people.

Also, are you comfortable with the PM presenting largely the same deal to the MPs for the third time (!) but people can vote only once (?), even though you were lied to in the first instance?

Interesting questions and happy to share my views.

I didn't really listen to the arguments from either side as I'd made my mind up before the referendum was announced.

After Maastricht I concluded that the European Experiment would either end up as a United States of Europe with member states forgoing all real power to a European Federal Government or be doomed to failure due the fiscal and political incompatibilities between member states. The later nearly came true with Greece almost at the point of crashing out of the Euro had it not been for the intervention of the political elite in the EU realising their Experiment could well be over unless Greece was saved. I was working in Athens at the time and it wasn't a happy place.

As a nation I don't believe that we are compatible with the direction Europe is heading, it's political ambitions or the price we would ultimately pay if/when it fails. That isn't to say I don't like Europe. I have travelled and worked extensively throughout many countries, have many friends that live there and have seen many benefits the EU has had to some of the less advantaged as well as the enormous waste, partly at our expense.

I'm not opposed to strong economic ties and to a certain extent a customs union but this has to be fair to both sides. I don't have a problem with migration. If people want to come here, work hard, pay their taxes and make a contribution to our society then I say "Welcome".

The sad thing is that UK politicians on all sides have made 2 mistakes. First was not realising that the EU will never back down if it thinks the European Experiment could be fatally damaged. The second was to put their party politics and personal views ahead of the people that elected them and this has led to the current impasse. Again, I agree that the referendum was flawed, you cannot answer a complex question with a one word answer. But don't you think it was designed that way to keep it as simple as possible but it backfired and we voted to leave. And that is important to note.

The 3rd mistake was on the part of the EU. They've always known that the UK has never really bought into their Grand Experiment and has been a constant thorn in their sides since we joined but our economic clout has allowed us to get away with this for longer than they liked. When Cameron went to ask for concessions (to essentially appease the sceptics in his own party) they paid him lip service and sent him away like Oliver. How dare he ask for more. They underestimated the UKs natural distrust of Europe based on centuries of conflict (taught in every UK school) and the popular press who do like to highlight how dishonest our European neighbours are regardless of the truth and The ERG and others of course jumped on this and this is no doubt the lies you are referring to. That's not to say the Remainers were completely honest either, both sides were more than economical with the truth. On balance though think of this. If we went back to the EU tomorrow and asked for many more economic and or political concessions if we agreed to stay do you think they would fall over themselves to oblige? I wonder.

If it helps I think the next global conflict will start with trade and escalate from there. It's interesting that Italy has opened the Silk Road today by signing a deal with China and where that will take the EU in the future who knows. But if it gets to the point where the chips are down, I'd be inclined to side with Churchill if you know your history.

[Miopyk]

Perfectly summed up!

Agreed, except when people allow their emotions to overcome their ability to have a civilised debate and they resort to insults. At that point they become merely entertaining for a short time and then irrelevant only to be ignored. Oh, and lets not call the whole thing off

I actually find it wholly amusing that when you give people the opportunity to explain their position, after they offer it, and then nothing comes of it, they somehow try and feel vindicated. Funny that right?? First time someone lives up to their online name.

If you've got kids can I suggest you go and tell them that daddy won an argument today by calling someone an idiot and taking the piss out of their affliction.

[Col Lamb]

We live in a democracy, the majority voted to leave, its Parliaments responsibility to make that happen. The fact that the current government has completely screwed this up and the opposition is even more incompetent has got us to a position where no one really knows what the outcome is going to be. That is not the fault of the people that voted to leave it is the fault of the politicians who put party politics and personal views ahead of the those of the populous.

Well, after the referendum, we learned that the promises were fictional and we don’t know who stands to benefit from the sanctions self-imposed on business and people.

Also, are you comfortable with the PM presenting largely the same deal to the MPs for the third time (!) but people can vote only once (?), even though you were lied to in the first instance?

Interesting questions and happy to share my views.

I didn't really listen to the arguments from either side as I'd made my mind up before the referendum was announced.

After Maastricht I concluded that the European Experiment would either end up as a United States of Europe with member states forgoing all real power to a European Federal Government or be doomed to failure due the fiscal and political incompatibilities between member states. The later nearly came true with Greece almost at the point of crashing out of the Euro had it not been for the intervention of the political elite in the EU realising their Experiment could well be over unless Greece was saved. I was working in Athens at the time and it wasn't a happy place.

As a nation I don't believe that we are compatible with the direction Europe is heading, it's political ambitions or the price we would ultimately pay if/when it fails. That isn't to say I don't like Europe. I have travelled and worked extensively throughout many countries, have many friends that live there and have seen many benefits the EU has had to some of the less advantaged as well as the enormous waste, partly at our expense.

I'm not opposed to strong economic ties and to a certain extent a customs union but this has to be fair to both sides. I don't have a problem with migration. If people want to come here, work hard, pay their taxes and make a contribution to our society then I say "Welcome".

The sad thing is that UK politicians on all sides have made 2 mistakes. First was not realising that the EU will never back down if it thinks the European Experiment could be fatally damaged. The second was to put their party politics and personal views ahead of the people that elected them and this has led to the current impasse. Again, I agree that the referendum was flawed, you cannot answer a complex question with a one word answer. But don't you think it was designed that way to keep it as simple as possible but it backfired and we voted to leave. And that is important to note.

The 3rd mistake was on the part of the EU. They've always known that the UK has never really bought into their Grand Experiment and has been a constant thorn in their sides since we joined but our economic clout has allowed us to get away with this for longer than they liked. When Cameron went to ask for concessions (to essentially appease the sceptics in his own party) they paid him lip service and sent him away like Oliver. How dare he ask for more. They underestimated the UKs natural distrust of Europe based on centuries of conflict (taught in every UK school) and the popular press who do like to highlight how dishonest our European neighbours are regardless of the truth and The ERG and others of course jumped on this and this is no doubt the lies you are referring to. That's not to say the Remainers were completely honest either, both sides were more than economical with the truth. On balance though think of this. If we went back to the EU tomorrow and asked for many more economic and or political concessions if we agreed to stay do you think they would fall over themselves to oblige? I wonder.

If it helps I think the next global conflict will start with trade and escalate from there. It's interesting that Italy has opened the Silk Road today by signing a deal with China and where that will take the EU in the future who knows. But if it gets to the point where the chips are down, I'd be inclined to side with Churchill if you know your history.

The UK is supposed to pay the EU a net £10 billion a year.

It is £19 billion gross less £5 billion rebate and £4 billion is received in funding or so say the ONS.

The UK imports £64 billion a year more than we export to the EU.

Why does that not put us in a strong negotiating footing?

To put it in context Government public spending was £815 billion in 2016.

[johnd]

The UK is supposed to pay the EU a net £10 billion a year.

It is £19 billion gross less £5 billion rebate and £4 billion is received in funding or so say the ONS.

But that's only the obvious part of the EU balance sheet. The UK also benefits in trade terms by being part of the EU - I have seen estimates up to 5% of GDP or more, ie £100B. But the exact figure isn't too important - the reality is that the trade benefits totally swamp any relatively tiny net formal contribution.

The UK imports £64 billion a year more than we export to the EU.

Why does that not put us in a strong negotiating footing?

Because exports by the EU to UK is around 8% of total EU trade whereas its around 50% for UK to EU. So the EU finds it much easier to stand by its rules/principles than the UK would. (Of course no-one wants to lose any trade but there's no doubt that the UK is much more vulnerable to loss of EU trade than vice versa.)

[Pivot]

The UK is supposed to pay the EU a net £10 billion a year.

It is £19 billion gross less £5 billion rebate and £4 billion is received in funding or so say the ONS.

The UK imports £64 billion a year more than we export to the EU.

Why does that not put us in a strong negotiating footing?

To put it in context Government public spending was £815 billion in 2016.

I see two elements here: ‘club fees’ and ‘trade balance’

If we call £10b a club fee that helps us grow the economy at a higher rate, in my books that is well spent money. With UK GDP at $2.6 trillion, the club fee is close to 0.3%. With London potentially losing the status of EU financial capital, we will drop the GDP by X%, is it worth exiting the club? Jobs of real people are on the line, as we see on weekly basis.

Re trade balance, I have personal trade balance deficit with Amazon, a bank/house loan and soon the German Porsche. Well, it is my choice what I buy. By introducing trade barriers, we are reducing choice by raising taxes.

Economically active people are paying income taxes and these are directly related to sustainable GDP growth that benefits everyone. Punitive taxes for buying imported Porsche, is only once-off payment every 5 years in my case, but it has a terrible effects on job creation/destruction in the country, as seen on TV.

So, once again, history and emotions aside, who stands to benefit from exiting the financial club and causing economical distress?

[Pivot]

Interesting questions and happy to share my views.

I didn't really listen to the arguments from either side as I'd made my mind up before the referendum was announced.

After Maastricht I concluded that the European Experiment would either end up as a United States of Europe with member states forgoing all real power to a European Federal Government or be doomed to failure due the fiscal and political incompatibilities between member states. The later nearly came true with Greece almost at the point of crashing out of the Euro had it not been for the intervention of the political elite in the EU realising their Experiment could well be over unless Greece was saved. I was working in Athens at the time and it wasn't a happy place.

As a nation I don't believe that we are compatible with the direction Europe is heading, it's political ambitions or the price we would ultimately pay if/when it fails. That isn't to say I don't like Europe. I have travelled and worked extensively throughout many countries, have many friends that live there and have seen many benefits the EU has had to some of the less advantaged as well as the enormous waste, partly at our expense.

I'm not opposed to strong economic ties and to a certain extent a customs union but this has to be fair to both sides. I don't have a problem with migration. If people want to come here, work hard, pay their taxes and make a contribution to our society then I say "Welcome".

The sad thing is that UK politicians on all sides have made 2 mistakes. First was not realising that the EU will never back down if it thinks the European Experiment could be fatally damaged. The second was to put their party politics and personal views ahead of the people that elected them and this has led to the current impasse. Again, I agree that the referendum was flawed, you cannot answer a complex question with a one word answer. But don't you think it was designed that way to keep it as simple as possible but it backfired and we voted to leave. And that is important to note.

The 3rd mistake was on the part of the EU. They've always known that the UK has never really bought into their Grand Experiment and has been a constant thorn in their sides since we joined but our economic clout has allowed us to get away with this for longer than they liked. When Cameron went to ask for concessions (to essentially appease the sceptics in his own party) they paid him lip service and sent him away like Oliver. How dare he ask for more. They underestimated the UKs natural distrust of Europe based on centuries of conflict (taught in every UK school) and the popular press who do like to highlight how dishonest our European neighbours are regardless of the truth and The ERG and others of course jumped on this and this is no doubt the lies you are referring to. That's not to say the Remainers were completely honest either, both sides were more than economical with the truth. On balance though think of this. If we went back to the EU tomorrow and asked for many more economic and or political concessions if we agreed to stay do you think they would fall over themselves to oblige? I wonder.

If it helps I think the next global conflict will start with trade and escalate from there. It's interesting that Italy has opened the Silk Road today by signing a deal with China and where that will take the EU in the future who knows. But if it gets to the point where the chips are down, I'd be inclined to side with Churchill if you know your history.

Thanks for sharing Miopyk, I see your arguments are centred around history, tactical/political errors and potential of full integration with the EU. I thought that UK has seen the value of large economic blocks (e.g. British Empire) especially being at the helm.

UK is the second largest economy in EU and has a VETO vote on the EU council, so I don’t see an issue. You can simply block any proposals that would adversely affect UK. What am I missing?

[Rab J]

If this thread says anything it tells us that its easy to come up with a very compelling case for both extremes of the argument and everything in between. No surprise then that its so hard for people generally and MPs specifically to work out what they want.

[GMAN75]

Interesting questions and happy to share my views.

I didn't really listen to the arguments from either side as I'd made my mind up before the referendum was announced.

After Maastricht I concluded that the European Experiment would either end up as a United States of Europe with member states forgoing all real power to a European Federal Government or be doomed to failure due the fiscal and political incompatibilities between member states. The later nearly came true with Greece almost at the point of crashing out of the Euro had it not been for the intervention of the political elite in the EU realising their Experiment could well be over unless Greece was saved. I was working in Athens at the time and it wasn't a happy place.

As a nation I don't believe that we are compatible with the direction Europe is heading, it's political ambitions or the price we would ultimately pay if/when it fails. That isn't to say I don't like Europe. I have travelled and worked extensively throughout many countries, have many friends that live there and have seen many benefits the EU has had to some of the less advantaged as well as the enormous waste, partly at our expense.

I'm not opposed to strong economic ties and to a certain extent a customs union but this has to be fair to both sides. I don't have a problem with migration. If people want to come here, work hard, pay their taxes and make a contribution to our society then I say "Welcome".

The sad thing is that UK politicians on all sides have made 2 mistakes. First was not realising that the EU will never back down if it thinks the European Experiment could be fatally damaged. The second was to put their party politics and personal views ahead of the people that elected them and this has led to the current impasse. Again, I agree that the referendum was flawed, you cannot answer a complex question with a one word answer. But don't you think it was designed that way to keep it as simple as possible but it backfired and we voted to leave. And that is important to note.

The 3rd mistake was on the part of the EU. They've always known that the UK has never really bought into their Grand Experiment and has been a constant thorn in their sides since we joined but our economic clout has allowed us to get away with this for longer than they liked. When Cameron went to ask for concessions (to essentially appease the sceptics in his own party) they paid him lip service and sent him away like Oliver. How dare he ask for more. They underestimated the UKs natural distrust of Europe based on centuries of conflict (taught in every UK school) and the popular press who do like to highlight how dishonest our European neighbours are regardless of the truth and The ERG and others of course jumped on this and this is no doubt the lies you are referring to. That's not to say the Remainers were completely honest either, both sides were more than economical with the truth. On balance though think of this. If we went back to the EU tomorrow and asked for many more economic and or political concessions if we agreed to stay do you think they would fall over themselves to oblige? I wonder.

If it helps I think the next global conflict will start with trade and escalate from there. It's interesting that Italy has opened the Silk Road today by signing a deal with China and where that will take the EU in the future who knows. But if it gets to the point where the chips are down, I'd be inclined to side with Churchill if you know your history.

Thanks for sharing Miopyk, I see your arguments are centred around history, tactical/political errors and potential of full integration with the EU. I thought that UK has seen the value of large economic blocks (e.g. British Empire) especially being at the helm.

UK is the second largest economy in EU and has a VETO vote on the EU council, so I don’t see an issue. You can simply block any proposals that would adversely affect UK. What am I missing?

Exactly.

Let's also throw in the Greek crisis to the argument to confuse things but conveniently forget the structural mess the Greeks were in before entering the EMU. BUT...it's all the EU's fault! Give me a break.