JLR change course on hydrogen

[Dandock]

JLR are re-looking at hydrogen as the economics converge.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/jlr-believes-battery-power-not-best-choice-heavy-suvs

[Deleted User 1874]

Seriously, JLR appear to be on a road to self-destruction. Their arguments are strange too. Bigger cars actually suit batteries better than small cars - easier to package, less percentage of overall kerb weight etc, but anyway let's see how this pans out over the next decade.

[Dandock]

Peteski. I’ve long suspected that given the right level of research and development that HFCs were, potentially, a more plausible route. This, therefore, maybe of interest not only in terms of powering and refuelling vehicles, but also in the width of the broader applications which would help drive its adoption.

Note, though, some of the appalling figures for the U.K. Shameful!!!

https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2019/ee/c8ee01157e#!divAbstract

[Deleted User 1874]

Peteski. I’ve long suspected that given the right level of research and development that HFCs were, potentially, a more plausible route. This, therefore, maybe of interest not only in terms of powering and refuelling vehicles, but also in the width of the broader applications which would help drive its adoption.

Note, though, some of the appalling figures for the U.K. Shameful!!!

https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2019/ee/c8ee01157e#!divAbstract

I'm all for alternative fuel sources, but FCEVs are really not doing it for me. This was interesting from your link:-

"The various European H2Mobility programs have suggested a rollout of refuelling stations at critical locations, with a network of 65 refuelling stations for the UK by 2020"

Let's come back in say June 2020 and see if this becomes a reality. How many stations are there today in the UK? Half a dozen perhaps? Plus you have very little choice of car (and very fugly ones they are too!).

I think manufacturers (even Toyota) are coming round to the view that BEVs have clearly won this battle, although I'm sure there will be specific use cases for FCEVs. I just don't see myself (or anyone else for that matter) buying one in the next decade. Anyone here seriously thinking of ordering one?

[Dandock]

I can’t disagree about the situation in the U.K. (and for example housing tech) but in the wider more erudite world things seem to appear more positive. With the broader applications that will accelerate the price convergence added to the ability to convert existing engines, boilers etc and also the lesser demand on the well established shortcomings of the power grid I think it’s more a case of BEVs having a head start. Time will ultimately tell.

[Deleted User 1874]

I think it’s more a case of BEVs having a head start.

You could say that about ICE cars too. It takes a LONG time for people to adapt to new technology on this scale. BEVs had the major advantage of not requiring immediate public charging stations for very early adopters who could rely solely on home charging. That allowed BEVs to get off the ground while the charging infrastructure was being developed. Whereas nobody in their right mind is going to buy an FCEV until they can refuel it for their daily use (which is currently impossible for pretty much everyone in the UK). It's a chicken and egg situation. Truly massive infrastructure would have to be provided before selling any number of FCEV cars at all. So until I can see a reliable network of hydrogen stations right across the UK I'm not even going to remotely consider buying one. I would suggest that is the case for literally everyone else too (for private car usage I'm talking here). It's just a practical issue that will be very difficult to overcome. Plus it will have to be as cheap to run as a BEV, which again is just not very practical. For these reasons I just don't see the market for private FCEVs gaining any traction whatsoever.

[Dandock]

I don’t think hardly anybody would actively choose a FCEV right now and I don’t believe the industry believes it or is remotely expecting it apart from, say, Japan and the various experimental bus schemes etc. And yes, there will be resistance related to infrastructure but once that gains momentum the ease of refuelling added to the ability to convert existing ICEs and the price convergence will create a powerful argument.

[Deleted User 1874]

I don’t think hardly anybody would actively choose a FCEV right now and I don’t believe the industry believes it or is remotely expecting it apart from, say, Japan and the various experimental bus schemes etc. And yes, there will be resistance related to infrastructure but once that gains momentum the ease of refuelling added to the ability to convert existing ICEs and the price convergence will create a powerful argument.

But how do you expect the infrastructure to gain momentum when nobody is going to buy a car first? The infrastructure literally has to appear overnight before you or I would even consider buying one. It also has to work financially compared to other fuels. Opening a few token filling stations dotted around the country isn't going to cut it. If FCEVs were going to gain traction it would have happened by now, but BEVs have steam rolled straight over them. The next 25 years, as far as personal transport goes, is going to be a mix of ICE, hybrids and BEVs, with ICE slowly dying off.

[SAC1]

It might well depend on the mega rich oil companies getting involved. They may see it as a way of eventually replacing their diesel and petrol sites.

The HGV, coach / bus and LCV fleets will not readily convert to EV. Trying to plug in numerous vehicles and the extended recharging time required at their individual depots would be a real challenge. Doubtful that overnight charge would last a full next days work load for them either.

FCEV could be their solution. That being the case, cars could capitalise on the quick refill too at those hydrogen stations.

Rapid refilling/ recharging will be a big motivation if mass uptake is to happen for the millions of vehicles on the roads of the world.

[Deleted User 1874]

The HGV, coach / bus and LCV fleets will not readily convert to EV.

Neither will they readily convert to Hydrogen unless the infrastructure is fully in place AND cheaper than diesel. Neither of those looks likely in any sensible time frame.