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Post by Deleted User 1874 »

SAC1 wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:39 pm So what? Well ICE are far from dead as you imply and BEV is NOT the final solution.
I actually said diesel (cars) are dead wood, even if it may take decades for them to actually disappear off our roads. I never said BEV had to be a "final" solution either. I believe there will be a mixture of power technologies in the medium/long term, but probably mainly BEV and petrol hybrids moving forward, as that's where the industry is now investing and making public statements is it not?

As for future Porsche diesels, they look pretty thin on the ground and you get the distinct impression that any future Porsche diesels will only exist due to VAG pressure to recoup their past investments. It's the high end performance oriented market where I expect diesels to disappear quickest. Few people will shed a tear when they are forced into buying a petrol Porsche, lol.

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SAC1
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Post by SAC1 »

Peteski wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:09 am
SAC1 wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:39 pm So what? Well ICE are far from dead as you imply and BEV is NOT the final solution.
I actually said diesel (cars) are dead wood, even if it may take decades for them to actually disappear off our roads. I never said BEV had to be a "final" solution either. I believe there will be a mixture of power technologies in the medium/long term, but probably mainly BEV and petrol hybrids moving forward, as that's where the industry is now investing and making public statements is it not?

As for future Porsche diesels, they look pretty thin on the ground and you get the distinct impression that any future Porsche diesels will only exist due to VAG pressure to recoup their past investments. It's the high end performance oriented market where I expect diesels to disappear quickest. Few people will shed a tear when they are forced into buying a petrol Porsche, lol.
LOL......You may be so wrong:

Audi expands e-diesel research
Audi has announced that it is expanding its research into synthetic diesel fuel with a new pilot facility in Switzerland. The automaker has been engaged in synthetic diesel research for four years. The company announced the expansion of this project earlier this month.

More info:
The new plant, which will use only water, air, and electricity as raw materials, represents a significant advance in sustainability, the company said.

The pilot plant will have the capacity to produce 105,669 gallons of synthetic fuel per year. Audi is teaming up with Ineratec, a chemical reactor technology company, and Energiedienst AG, an electricity company, to set up the factory. Construction of the facility will begin in early 2018.

From 2014, Audi has partnered with an energy tech company named Sunfire to work on synthetic diesel at a facility in Dresden where the fuel was made with a different technology, though the process was based on the same principles. According to Audi, the synthetic fuel produced at the new plant in Laufenburg, Switzerland, will be a lot cheaper as the plant can produce e-diesel in compact units.
Steve

2020 GTS in Sapphire Blue
(sold) 2017 SD in Rhodium Silver
Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

SAC1 wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:32 am
Peteski wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:09 am
SAC1 wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:39 pm So what? Well ICE are far from dead as you imply and BEV is NOT the final solution.
I actually said diesel (cars) are dead wood, even if it may take decades for them to actually disappear off our roads. I never said BEV had to be a "final" solution either. I believe there will be a mixture of power technologies in the medium/long term, but probably mainly BEV and petrol hybrids moving forward, as that's where the industry is now investing and making public statements is it not?

As for future Porsche diesels, they look pretty thin on the ground and you get the distinct impression that any future Porsche diesels will only exist due to VAG pressure to recoup their past investments. It's the high end performance oriented market where I expect diesels to disappear quickest. Few people will shed a tear when they are forced into buying a petrol Porsche, lol.
LOL......You may be so wrong:

Audi expands e-diesel research
Audi has announced that it is expanding its research into synthetic diesel fuel with a new pilot facility in Switzerland. The automaker has been engaged in synthetic diesel research for four years. The company announced the expansion of this project earlier this month.

More info:
The new plant, which will use only water, air, and electricity as raw materials, represents a significant advance in sustainability, the company said.

The pilot plant will have the capacity to produce 105,669 gallons of synthetic fuel per year. Audi is teaming up with Ineratec, a chemical reactor technology company, and Energiedienst AG, an electricity company, to set up the factory. Construction of the facility will begin in early 2018.

From 2014, Audi has partnered with an energy tech company named Sunfire to work on synthetic diesel at a facility in Dresden where the fuel was made with a different technology, though the process was based on the same principles. According to Audi, the synthetic fuel produced at the new plant in Laufenburg, Switzerland, will be a lot cheaper as the plant can produce e-diesel in compact units.
Right, so you seriously think they will be able to ramp up synthetic diesel production to meet current demand or anywhere vaguely close? I don't see it as any more than a niche product and probably another dead end investment.

Reality check here for you:-

"If the world adopted Audi’s method of producing e-Diesel, there definitely wouldn’t be an abundance of the stuff. Currently the Dresden plant is capable of producing 3,000 litres of e-diesel in a few months. To put that into perspective, last year the US guzzled through 1.7 billion litres in a day. At 0.0002% of the US’ daily output, it’s just not a feasible energy alternative.

With Tesla’s plans for producing both home and industrial-scale batteries, the prospect of fuel-based generators as backup power supplies seem like a thing of the past. And any energy company supplying power to homes and businesses would be better off delivering it directly from renewable energy sources, instead of synthesising fuel to burn.

Audi isn’t going to give up though, having worked on the project since 2009. The trouble is, by the time it becomes a viable alternative for some Audi drivers to use, the advances in electric cars should have taken off enough to see e-diesel’s applications in the automotive industry made practically obsolete."

http://www.alphr.com/cars/1000707/reali ... r-industry
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SAC1
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Post by SAC1 »

Peteski wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:51 am
SAC1 wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:32 am
Peteski wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:09 am

I actually said diesel (cars) are dead wood, even if it may take decades for them to actually disappear off our roads. I never said BEV had to be a "final" solution either. I believe there will be a mixture of power technologies in the medium/long term, but probably mainly BEV and petrol hybrids moving forward, as that's where the industry is now investing and making public statements is it not?

As for future Porsche diesels, they look pretty thin on the ground and you get the distinct impression that any future Porsche diesels will only exist due to VAG pressure to recoup their past investments. It's the high end performance oriented market where I expect diesels to disappear quickest. Few people will shed a tear when they are forced into buying a petrol Porsche, lol.
LOL......You may be so wrong:

Audi expands e-diesel research
Audi has announced that it is expanding its research into synthetic diesel fuel with a new pilot facility in Switzerland. The automaker has been engaged in synthetic diesel research for four years. The company announced the expansion of this project earlier this month.

More info:
The new plant, which will use only water, air, and electricity as raw materials, represents a significant advance in sustainability, the company said.

The pilot plant will have the capacity to produce 105,669 gallons of synthetic fuel per year. Audi is teaming up with Ineratec, a chemical reactor technology company, and Energiedienst AG, an electricity company, to set up the factory. Construction of the facility will begin in early 2018.

From 2014, Audi has partnered with an energy tech company named Sunfire to work on synthetic diesel at a facility in Dresden where the fuel was made with a different technology, though the process was based on the same principles. According to Audi, the synthetic fuel produced at the new plant in Laufenburg, Switzerland, will be a lot cheaper as the plant can produce e-diesel in compact units.
Right, so you seriously think they will be able to ramp up synthetic diesel production to meet current demand or anywhere vaguely close? I don't see it as any more than a niche product and probably another dead end investment.

Reality check here for you:-

"If the world adopted Audi’s method of producing e-Diesel, there definitely wouldn’t be an abundance of the stuff. Currently the Dresden plant is capable of producing 3,000 litres of e-diesel in a few months. To put that into perspective, last year the US guzzled through 1.7 billion litres in a day. At 0.0002% of the US’ daily output, it’s just not a feasible energy alternative.

With Tesla’s plans for producing both home and industrial-scale batteries, the prospect of fuel-based generators as backup power supplies seem like a thing of the past. And any energy company supplying power to homes and businesses would be better off delivering it directly from renewable energy sources, instead of synthesising fuel to burn.

Audi isn’t going to give up though, having worked on the project since 2009. The trouble is, by the time it becomes a viable alternative for some Audi drivers to use, the advances in electric cars should have taken off enough to see e-diesel’s applications in the automotive industry made practically obsolete."

http://www.alphr.com/cars/1000707/reali ... r-industry
Best we agree to disagree then. I just don't see the millions of diesel engined vehicles disappearing anytime soon. ICE cars will not be withdrawn for sale until 2040 in the UK.....over 21 years still. Plenty of time for all sorts of alternatives to emerge.

I for one do not want to wait for a BEV to be charged when I can ICE refuel in a few minutes. Not everyone has the possibility for home charging. The public network of chargers is woefully inadequate currently. Then if you do find a non-home one available, many are out-of-use. Its not like a petrol station where reliability of refuelling is virtually 100%. There's not even commonality of the charger plugs amongst the BEV manufacturers. It may come good in the very large cities, but we don't all live in those!

The electricity charge costs will surely escalate if millions of ICE vehicle owners do change to BEVs. Likewise taxation on BEVs.
Steve

2020 GTS in Sapphire Blue
(sold) 2017 SD in Rhodium Silver
Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

SAC1 wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:48 pm
Best we agree to disagree then. I just don't see the millions of diesel engined vehicles disappearing anytime soon. ICE cars will not be withdrawn for sale until 2040 in the UK.....over 21 years still. Plenty of time for all sorts of alternatives to emerge.

I for one do not want to wait for a BEV to be charged when I can ICE refuel in a few minutes. Not everyone has the possibility for home charging. The public network of chargers is woefully inadequate currently. Then if you do find a non-home one available, many are out-of-use. Its not like a petrol station where reliability of refuelling is virtually 100%. There's not even commonality of the charger plugs amongst the BEV manufacturers. It may come good in the very large cities, but we don't all live in those!

The electricity charge costs will surely escalate if millions of ICE vehicle owners do change to BEVs. Likewise taxation on BEVs.
Actually I do agree with all of your above comments except for the part about 21 years being plenty of time for all sorts of alternatives to emerge. As we can see with BEVs, new mainstream automotive technology takes multiple decades to emerge due to the sheer scale of the industry. Any genuinely new power source discovered today is highly unlikely to become mainstream within the next 50 years. All you can do is watch where the industry is actually putting its money and making public statements of intent.

E-diesel certainly doesn't make any sense on a global scale and I'm sure Audi are fully aware of the limitations. BEVs have plenty of unresolved issues too for the masses, but there is no doubt in my mind that they are going to take a significant slice of the personal car market over the next two decades. The money has already been invested and actual products are now hitting the market in significant numbers. Conventional diesels (and petrols for that matter) have no viable long term future unless the world totally gives up on future CO2 targets, which is highly unlikely. PHEVs are the obvious compromise and they will probably dominate sales over the next decade. They are an easy out for both the manufacturers and politicians alike. I'm not sure what other realistic scenarios are even feasible? Hydrogen maybe in certain markets, but it looks increasingly unlikely to gain traction globally.
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Post by SAC1 »

Peteski wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:20 pm Hydrogen maybe in certain markets, but it looks increasingly unlikely to gain traction globally.
Global player Hyundai previewed their NEXO SUV fourth generation hydrogen fuel-cell model at CES, Las Vegas this month.
Steve

2020 GTS in Sapphire Blue
(sold) 2017 SD in Rhodium Silver
Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

SAC1 wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:44 pm
Peteski wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:20 pm Hydrogen maybe in certain markets, but it looks increasingly unlikely to gain traction globally.
Global player Hyundai previewed their NEXO SUV fourth generation hydrogen fuel-cell model at CES, Las Vegas this month.
Are you actually going to buy one then? If so where will you fuel it up? If you consider EV charging infrastructure to be inadequate, then how do you think this is going to work in reality in most countries? I'm sure there will be some market as manufacturers continue to develop the technology, but EVs are way ahead of Hydrogen as of today.
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Post by Tim92gts »

If Audi can produce a fuel from the CO2 in the atmosphere plus electricity and water it must have a lot going for it.

Electricity isn't particularly green at the moment and a competitor using the existing fuel distribution network would be ideal.

The Energy Return on Investment for crude oil based fuels has been falling fast now you can't just drill a little hole in Texas and watch it pour out.
Tim
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SAC1
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Post by SAC1 »

Peteski wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:00 pm
SAC1 wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:44 pm
Peteski wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:20 pm Hydrogen maybe in certain markets, but it looks increasingly unlikely to gain traction globally.
Global player Hyundai previewed their NEXO SUV fourth generation hydrogen fuel-cell model at CES, Las Vegas this month.
Are you actually going to buy one then? If so where will you fuel it up? If you consider EV charging infrastructure to be inadequate, then how do you think this is going to work in reality in most countries? I'm sure there will be some market as manufacturers continue to develop the technology, but EVs are way ahead of Hydrogen as of today.
Here...http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-14044316
and here...https://www.zap-map.com/four-new-hydrog ... confirmed/
Steve

2020 GTS in Sapphire Blue
(sold) 2017 SD in Rhodium Silver
Deleted User 1874

Post by Deleted User 1874 »

SAC1 wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:17 pm
Peteski wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:00 pm
SAC1 wrote: Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:44 pm

Global player Hyundai previewed their NEXO SUV fourth generation hydrogen fuel-cell model at CES, Las Vegas this month.
Are you actually going to buy one then? If so where will you fuel it up? If you consider EV charging infrastructure to be inadequate, then how do you think this is going to work in reality in most countries? I'm sure there will be some market as manufacturers continue to develop the technology, but EVs are way ahead of Hydrogen as of today.
Here...http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-14044316
and here...https://www.zap-map.com/four-new-hydrog ... confirmed/
So I'd basically have to move to Birmingham or Swindon and buy a Hyundai Nexo to embrace Hydrogen tech. No thanks!
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